UK construction output to rise

Nov 13, 2015 00:41 am UTC| Commentary

The path of construction output is very difficult to predict because the official data appear totally at odds with what the surveys reveal. The data say that output fell by 5.5% between March and August whereas the...

Poland's Q3’15 flash GDP growth trend set to continue

Nov 13, 2015 00:27 am UTC| Commentary

Polands Q315 GDP growth flash estimate is expected to come in at 3.4% yoy (NSA). The statistic base effect will be supportive for Q3 data. In recent months, we have observed far weaker retail sales growth (both in nominal...

Fed versus ECB in December: lift-off versus easing

Nov 12, 2015 23:47 pm UTC| Commentary Central Banks

Recent testimony by Chair Yellen regarding the Feds confidence in the economys performance, coupled with the robust consumption-related data in recent weeks (including the sharp rebound in October employment), make a...

Euro area Q3 GDP expected to rise 0.3% qoq

Nov 12, 2015 23:22 pm UTC| Commentary

Euro area GDP is expected to grow by 0.3% qoq in Q3 15, down from 0.4% in Q2. The apparent slowdown masks improving growth in most countries apart from Greece, where a significant drop (-3.6% qoq) is expected following the...

Emerging Market Crisis Series

EM economies: How will capital flows react to Fed hikes?

Nov 12, 2015 22:48 pm UTC| Commentary

In principle, the history of Fed hiking cycles has shown that capital flows into EM can hold up if rising rates do not come as a large surprise (as in 1994) and coincide with a robust outlook for global, and thus EM,...

Looking ahead to a decent Italian GDP report

Nov 12, 2015 22:23 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Recent developments in the Italian economy indicate that activity remained unchanged at 0.3% qoq in Q3. The statistical tools put GDP growth at 0.3% qoq, in line with the increase posted in Q2. The improvement seems to...

Japanese economy contracted by a mild amount in Q3

Nov 12, 2015 22:08 pm UTC| Commentary Economy

Consensus thinks the Japanese economy contracted by a mild amount in Q3 following the sharper 1.2% contraction in Q2. Much of this is expected to be due to the tracking of softer business investment as consumption probably...