U.S. likely to see moderate GDP growth ahead

Dec 18, 2015 04:56 am UTC| Commentary

The Conference Boards Leading Economic Index in United States increased by 0.4% month on month in November. At a disaggregate level, building permits increased by 0.3PP, stock prices, interest rate spreads and credit...

Banxico likely to deliver a pre-emptive hike on MXN weakness

Dec 18, 2015 03:31 am UTC| Commentary

Mexicos positive inflation outlook, along with risks to growth, indicates that Banxico will lag the US Federal Reserve during its rate-hiking cycle next year. "We expect two more hikes of 25bp, at the March and June...

India's agriculture output mitigated by government measures

Dec 18, 2015 02:53 am UTC| Commentary

The El Niño resulted in poor monsoon rains in India, while localized flooding is an unfolding tragedy. Seasonal rainfall was 14% below normal, and the country now has experienced two poor monsoons in a row. The...

Renminbi Series

CNY on the path of further depreciation

Dec 18, 2015 02:03 am UTC| Commentary

The announcement of the CFETS index not only allows China to publish its own benchmark currency index (perhaps the start of an attempt to eventually rival the USD Index), but also reinforces the view that the authorities...

Canada's external factors the key driver, but also the key risk

Dec 18, 2015 01:14 am UTC| Commentary Economy

The anticipated rotation of Canadian growth, and indeed much of the growth forecast, is reliant on how developments beyond the borders feed into the domestic economy. There are two key risk channels: foreign demand and the...

US inflation will edge higher

Dec 18, 2015 00:50 am UTC| Commentary

The result of falling energy prices and a rising dollar has been the disappearance of inflation. The next year is likely to see a partial unwinding of these influences. Falling energy prices cut 1.7 percentage points from...

Canada’s external factors key to economic rebalancing and growth

Dec 18, 2015 00:34 am UTC| Commentary Economy

Factors beyond Canadas borders remain central to the economic outlook. Low oil prices, diverging growth outlooks and expected interest rate differentials have all pushed the value of the Canadian dollar lower relative to...