A 'Yes' vote would allow negotiations to resume on the basis of the late June proposals. However, early elections or an unstable coalition would also follow a 'Yes' vote. And given the time and complexity entailed by a new programme, the third Greek bailout worth between €60-80bn in our opinion is unlikely to be approved before late August. As a result, Greece is set to default on its ECB debt repayments both in July and August. Despite this however, the ECB will continue to provide liquidity to Greek banks as long as the line of communication remains open and at least until there is clarification on the political side. ECB is likely to issue a statement requiring a programme to recapitalise Greek banks. The introduction of a parallel currency may be on the cards even with a 'Yes'. Finally, even with a third bailout, the implementation risks remain high - creating a semi-stable outcome, says Societe Generale.
