What Will Self-Driving Vehicles Mean for Car Accidents?

We’ve been talking about self-driving vehicles for decades now. But we’re finally at a point in history where prototypes and models are being used on actual roadways. The question is, how will they impact safety?

The Outlook for Self-Driving Vehicles

Whether the average person realizes it or not, self-driving vehicles are here. Alphabet Google is considered the leader in this space. They finally took the driver out of their self-driving vehicles back in November 2018, and have a number of autonomous minivans driving around Phoenix at the moment. Other cities around the country have their own test projects and we’re closer to large scale adoption than most think.

Various market research studies suggest that the global self-driving vehicle market forecast is set to grow anywhere from CAGR 25.7 percent to CAGR 41.61 percent between now and 2025.

The question is, will these vehicles be less safe, as safe, or safer than today’s vehicles with human drivers in the cockpit? And it’s a question that delivers an array of answers depending on who you ask.

What Does Autonomous Really Mean?

Most people lump all autonomous vehicles into a single category, but the reality is that there are significant variances between these cars. There are different levels – starting at 0 and going up to 5.

Level 0 vehicles have no autonomous driving components whatsoever. (A 1994 Ford Explorer would be an example.) Level 1 autonomous vehicles have some built-in driver-assist programs like adaptive cruise control or lane assist, but the driver is still in complete control of steering the car. Level 2 is where things get interesting. These vehicles have the ability to control speed and steering in select circumstances – such as parking or keeping a vehicle in its lane on straight stretches of roadway.

With Level 3 autonomous driving, a huge shift occurs. These vehicles – of which there are now a few on the road – can safely monitor the environment and respond appropriately in many situations. However, they can’t navigate every scenario – so drivers still have to be fully engaged and alert.

It’s with Level 4 autonomous driving that the driver is no longer needed. Drivers can read, look out the window, or even sleep. The only caveat is that a Level 4 driving system can only handle specific road conditions – such as an interstate.

Finally, there’s level 5 autonomous driving – which is the real deal. Vehicles in this category require no human intervention and can get people from start to finish with full automation.

In 2018, it was estimated that roughly 8 million Level 3 or higher vehicles were manufactured and shipped. While it’s not anywhere close to Level 4 or Level 5, it’s definitely a major step up from Level 2. (And most major vehicle manufacturers expect to be able to produce Level 5 vehicles within just three or four years.)

Self-Driving Vehicles and Car Accidents

Now that we have an understanding of what we mean by self-driving vehicles, let’s dig down to the root of the issue: roadway safety.

Car accidents have been a major problem on roadways for decades. And while cars have gotten safer, there’s still a significant amount of risk that results from driving. Car accidents are costly, often resulting in expensive claims to cover vehicular damage, medical bills, rehabilitation, future financial loss, etc. Will self-driving vehicles make things worse? Or will car accidents suddenly become a thing of the past?

“The long term vision is that cars shouldn't crash,” Volvo spokesman Jim Trainor says.

Unfortunately, this is far easier said than done. And it’s often humans that get in the way.

“In a study of vehicle incident reports in California, Axios found that humans were at fault in the vast majority of accidents that occurred on the roads,” Don Reisinger writes for Fortune. “The study, which spans 2014 through 2018, found that when the self-driving cars were in autonomous mode and driving on their own, 38 incidents occurred while moving. In all but one of those cases, the accidents were caused by humans.”

At the moment, it sounds like the biggest issue is getting people to trust that their autonomous vehicles work. It’s also important that these new safety features are viewed as desirable, otherwise, they’ll become irritating.

“If it false brakes too often, people get frustrated and they turn the system off,” Trainor says. “We need to calibrate the system so it gives the driver every last possible moment to take action.”

The New Future

It’s clear that autonomous vehicles will eventually make our roads safer. But in order for us to reach this point, innovation has to improve and drivers must learn to trust their vehicles. Companies like Volvo are aiming to have zero deaths in their vehicles by as early as 2020. And while this seems bold, advances in technology could make this a realistic dream.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or management of EconoTimes.