Vale Eyes India’s Booming Steel Industry as Iron Ore Demand Surges

Brazilian mining giant Vale is gearing up to meet rapidly rising iron ore demand from India, where steel production is projected to double by the end of the decade, according to CEO Gustavo Pimenta. With China’s steel output stabilizing near 1 billion metric tons annually, Vale is shifting focus toward India and emerging Asian markets to drive growth.

“India has 1.6 billion people and immense infrastructure needs, which means huge steel demand,” Pimenta told Reuters. He noted that India’s steel capacity could reach 300 million tons within seven years, creating strong demand for Vale’s high-grade ore, which blends well with India’s lower-quality supply. This year, India is set to import 10 million tons of Vale’s ore—up from nearly none just a few years ago—though still far behind China, which accounts for around 60% of Vale’s sales.

While China remains the world’s top steel producer, Vale expects its output to remain flat or slightly decline, contrasting sharply with India’s 12% annual growth rate. The miner also anticipates increased sales to other Asian nations, including Vietnam, which is projected to import 8 million tons in 2025, a major jump from recent years.

Following a strong third quarter marked by 5% sales growth and record iron ore output since 2018, Vale is preparing to unveil long-term growth strategies at its “Vale Day” investor event on December 2 in New York. Pimenta said the company will highlight expansion projects under its “Novo Carajás” program, which aims to boost annual iron ore capacity by 20 million tons by 2026 through a 70 billion reais ($12.95 billion) investment.

Vale also plans to double its copper output by 2035 and may sell its Thompson nickel mine in Canada, citing weak prices and rising Indonesian competition. With these initiatives, Vale aims to reclaim its position as the world’s top iron ore producer by year-end.