BCA Research Warns Iran and Ukraine Ceasefires May Offer Limited Relief for Global Markets 
Oil Prices Rebound Above $92 as Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Fuels Middle East Supply Concerns 
Japan Weighs Two-Year Food Tax Cut Starting in 2027 to Ease Cost-of-Living Pressure 
New World Screwworm Found Near U.S. Border Raises Threat to Cattle Industry and Beef Prices 
US Dollar Rises on Middle East Tensions as Markets Monitor Iran-US Negotiations 
India Manufacturing Growth Accelerates in May Despite Rising Costs 
US Stock Futures Rise as Hopes Grow for U.S.-Iran Peace Deal 
Jerome Powell Warns Against Politicizing the Federal Reserve, Defends Democratic Institutions 
Rising Airfares May Challenge Cruise Industry Growth Ahead of 2027 Booking Season 
China Manufacturing PMI Beats Forecasts as Export and Domestic Demand Stay Strong 
Gold Prices Fall as Stronger Dollar and Iran Tensions Weigh on Market Sentiment 
US Stock Futures Slip as Iran Tensions Rise and AI-Fueled Tech Rally Loses Steam 
Trump Revises U.S. Tariffs on Copper, Aluminum, and Steel Imports Through 2027 
China’s Companion Economy Booms as Young People Pay for Friendship and Travel Partners in 2026 
Iran-U.S. Nuclear Talks Remain Unresolved as Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep Markets on Edge 
Kevin Warsh Faces Early Fed Test as Inflation Risks Challenge Rate-Cut Expectations 
Australia Minimum Wage to Rise 4.75% as Inflation Pressures Persist 
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is showing signs of a possible rise in market volatility, according to the latest Sevens Report. After peaking significantly in August and subsequently falling to around 15, the VIX has started forming a series of higher lows. This pattern has not been seen since late 2021, a period that led to notable market instability. This was also further explained by CNBC in this in-depth analysis.
Unusual VIX Futures Structure Raises Concern
Sevens Research highlights the abnormal structure in VIX futures. The futures curve is currently in backwardation, where the October contract is trading at a premium to the November contract, as further explained by Reuters. This is uncommon, as typically, longer-duration futures trade at higher prices due to their greater associated risk. The inversion suggests that traders are preparing for a significant increase in market volatility before the October contract’s expiration in mid-October.
Indicators to Monitor for Market Movement
The Sevens Report advises investors to monitor three key developments: a rise in the VIX above the 24 level, which would indicate heightened volatility; normalization of the VIX futures curve, a potential positive signal for equities; or a growing premium between the October and November contracts. If the premium between the two contracts widens, it may indicate increasing risk of a market selloff that could send the S&P 500 back to its early September levels or potentially revisit early August lows.
Conclusion: Be Alert for Volatility Signs
The Sevens Report suggests keeping a close eye on these indicators over the next few weeks, as they may serve as early warning signs for market changes. With potential volatility on the horizon, investors should stay alert for potential shifts in market dynamics.
