Vietnam’s Trade Surplus With US Jumps as Exports Surge and China Imports Hit Record 
U.S. Stock Futures Slide as Tech Rout Deepens on Amazon Capex Shock 
RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% as India’s Growth Outlook Strengthens After U.S. Trade Deal 
Fed Governor Lisa Cook Warns Inflation Risks Remain as Rates Stay Steady 
South Africa Eyes ECB Repo Lines as Inflation Eases and Rate Cuts Loom 
Gold and Silver Prices Slide as Dollar Strength and Easing Tensions Weigh on Metals 
Trump Lifts 25% Tariff on Indian Goods in Strategic U.S.–India Trade and Energy Deal 
Japan Economy Poised for Q4 2025 Growth as Investment and Consumption Hold Firm 
China Extends Gold Buying Streak as Reserves Surge Despite Volatile Prices 
South Korea’s Weak Won Struggles as Retail Investors Pour Money Into U.S. Stocks 
India–U.S. Interim Trade Pact Cuts Auto Tariffs but Leaves Tesla Out 
Trump Signs Executive Order Threatening 25% Tariffs on Countries Trading With Iran 
Global Markets Slide as AI, Crypto, and Precious Metals Face Heightened Volatility 
Singapore Budget 2026 Set for Fiscal Prudence as Growth Remains Resilient 
Thailand Inflation Remains Negative for 10th Straight Month in January 
Trump’s Inflation Claims Clash With Voters’ Cost-of-Living Reality 
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is showing signs of a possible rise in market volatility, according to the latest Sevens Report. After peaking significantly in August and subsequently falling to around 15, the VIX has started forming a series of higher lows. This pattern has not been seen since late 2021, a period that led to notable market instability. This was also further explained by CNBC in this in-depth analysis.
Unusual VIX Futures Structure Raises Concern
Sevens Research highlights the abnormal structure in VIX futures. The futures curve is currently in backwardation, where the October contract is trading at a premium to the November contract, as further explained by Reuters. This is uncommon, as typically, longer-duration futures trade at higher prices due to their greater associated risk. The inversion suggests that traders are preparing for a significant increase in market volatility before the October contract’s expiration in mid-October.
Indicators to Monitor for Market Movement
The Sevens Report advises investors to monitor three key developments: a rise in the VIX above the 24 level, which would indicate heightened volatility; normalization of the VIX futures curve, a potential positive signal for equities; or a growing premium between the October and November contracts. If the premium between the two contracts widens, it may indicate increasing risk of a market selloff that could send the S&P 500 back to its early September levels or potentially revisit early August lows.
Conclusion: Be Alert for Volatility Signs
The Sevens Report suggests keeping a close eye on these indicators over the next few weeks, as they may serve as early warning signs for market changes. With potential volatility on the horizon, investors should stay alert for potential shifts in market dynamics.
