G20 Divided Over US Push to Curb Industrial Overcapacity 
Dollar Hits Three-Month High as US Treasury Yields Surge 
BOJ Set for 25-Basis-Point Rate Hike as Yen Weakness Fuels Inflation 
Tokyo Inflation Jumps to 2.7%, Boosting BOJ Rate Hike Expectations 
Nasdaq Futures Jump as Micron Earnings Boost AI Trade 
Fed Unveils Stablecoin Rules Under GENIUS Act 
Yen Sinks as BOJ Rate Hike Fails to Impress Markets 
RBI Uses $10 Billion Currency Swaps to Drain Excess Rupee Liquidity 
Wall Street Edges Higher as Treasury Yields Retreat 
RBA Hikes Interest Rate to 4.60% as Inflation Risks Rise 
Fed’s Hammack Says More Data Needed Before Next Rate Move 
Scope Warns US Debt Could Hit 160% of GDP 
Gold Prices Steady as Markets Await U.S. Jobs Data 
Add as a preferred source on Google
USD/TRY is expected to witness further upside this year if the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) does not simplify its policy and tighten its main policy rate and only tries to muddle through using daily liquidity management operations.
CBT's March expectations survey highlighted an optimistic growth outlook held by market forecasters, but a deteriorating inflation outlook. GDP growth expectations are hovering around 2.9 percent for this year, which seems quite unrealistic and difficult to explain given the performance of recent quarters and the upcoming political uncertainty.
Inflation forecasts have, however, risen to 9.1 percent for this year-end, which constitutes a marked deterioration. Forecasters expect the lira, too, to weaken from here by year-end, with USD-TRY reaching 3.85, which is not dramatically different from our own 3.90 forecast. The survey shows that analysts do not expect CBT to tighten its benchmark rate this week, which matches expectations, Commerzbank reported.
"We expect CBT to only raise its marginal funding rates, such as the late liquidity rate," the report said.
