India Services Sector Rebounds in January as New Business Gains Momentum: HSBC PMI Shows Growth 
China Holds Loan Prime Rates Steady in January as Market Expectations Align 
Taiwan Urges Stronger Trade Ties With Fellow Democracies, Rejects Economic Dependence on China 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
Indian Rupee Strengthens Sharply After U.S.-India Trade Deal Announcement 
U.S. Urges Japan on Monetary Policy as Yen Volatility Raises Market Concerns 
USD/TRY is expected to witness further upside this year if the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) does not simplify its policy and tighten its main policy rate and only tries to muddle through using daily liquidity management operations.
CBT's March expectations survey highlighted an optimistic growth outlook held by market forecasters, but a deteriorating inflation outlook. GDP growth expectations are hovering around 2.9 percent for this year, which seems quite unrealistic and difficult to explain given the performance of recent quarters and the upcoming political uncertainty.
Inflation forecasts have, however, risen to 9.1 percent for this year-end, which constitutes a marked deterioration. Forecasters expect the lira, too, to weaken from here by year-end, with USD-TRY reaching 3.85, which is not dramatically different from our own 3.90 forecast. The survey shows that analysts do not expect CBT to tighten its benchmark rate this week, which matches expectations, Commerzbank reported.
"We expect CBT to only raise its marginal funding rates, such as the late liquidity rate," the report said.
