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The United States’ non-farm payrolls is expected to have risen by 150,000 in December and, with the incoming survey data improving again, jobs growth looks set to remain solid throughout 2020 as well, according to the latest research report from Capital Economics.
November month saw non-farm payrolls rising to 266k, boosted by the return of 43k General Motors workers back from their strike, after which hiring has regained its pace over the past few months. Together with upward revisions to previous months’ figures, the three-month average gain in non-farm payrolls is now a strong 205k.
According to the report, there seems to be a lot of scepticism in the scale of these gains because they will be revised significantly lower as part of the annual benchmark revisions, due for release alongside the January employment report next month.
However, it remains unlikely that the recent acceleration in payroll growth will be revised away completely.
"A range of evidence suggests that prospects for the labour market remain solid heading into 2020. After declining earlier in 2019, temporary help employment has rebounded, which has been a good leading indicator of overall payroll growth in recent years," Capital Economics further commented in the report.
