U.S. civilian labor force likely posted modest rise

The BLS' canvass of households likely will echo the upbeat tone of the nonfarm job survey in the United States. Assuming that the recent relationship between the establishment and household employment measures held reasonably steady during the reference period, the latter series probably rebounded by 175K in October, reversing a little over three quarters of September's surprising 236K drop. 

The civilian labor force is expected to eke out only a modest 15K rise during the reference period, however, following the 350K contraction posted in the prior month. Taken together, the above projections would leave the unemployment rate two ticks lower at 4.9% (4.948% unrounded) - the lowest level since February 2008. 

"Broader labor slack gauges are expected to follow suit this month. Our conventional unemployment rate forecast would be consistent with the BLS' broader U-6 measure, which includes both marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons, dipping to 9.9% - the tightest reading since May 2008. With the civilian population expected to expand by 240K in October, the participation rate would move one tick lower to 62.3% - the lowest reading since September 1977", said Societe Generale.