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US Treasuries slump as Brexit momentum shifts toward 'Remain' camp

The US Treasuries saw selling in the belly and long-end of the curve on Monday after polls showed support for Britain staying in the EU regaining momentum before Thursday’s referendum. Also, stronger than expected housing starts/building permits data for May drove-out investors from safe-haven buying.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 4 basis points to 1.658 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year Treasury note also jumped 1-1/2 to 0.717 percent by 12:45 GMT.

The May US Commerce Department housing starts and building permits report registered a decrease in housing starts to 1164k (down -0.3 percent m/m), versus the revised 1167k reading seen in April (prev. 1172k), above market expectations for a 1150k result. Meanwhile, building permits increased +0.7 percent m/m to 1138k in May, versus the revised 1130k reading that occurred in April (prev. 1166k), in line with market expectations for a 1140k result. Alongside the relatively maintained reading seen for starts, we expect broader improvement is likely to be seen in the months ahead as production gradually improves, despite any lingering headwinds.

Moreover, a recent opinion poll showed that British voters have swung and now started to favour remaining in the European Union. A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times newspaper published at the weekend showed 44 percent supported remaining in the EU, as compared to 43 percent who supported leaving, based on interviews conducted on Thursday and Friday. Two other polls also showed public opinion tilted towards the 'Remain' camp after the killing of a UK politician Jo Cox on last Thursday.

The implied probability of a 'Remain' vote in Thursday's EU referendum has hardened further, to 74.6 percent, after jumping to 72 percent earlier in the Asian session, up from 60 percent to 67 percent, on Friday, according to the latest odds from bookmaker Betfair.

Also, the final European Union referendum phone poll by BMG Research showed Bremain at 53.3 percent vs Brexit on 46.7 percent. On the other hand, including the ‘undecided’, vote for Remain stood at 46 percent vs Leave 43 percent and undecided 11 percent. The online poll has Leave 55 percent Remain compared to Leave 45 percent.

A British member of parliament, Jo Cox, was shot dead on last Thursday, resulting in the suspension of campaigning for this week’s referendum on the country's EU membership. Cox was one of the members of parliament advocating continued British membership.

In addition, the crude oil prices jumped more than 1 percent due to weaker US dollar and easing fears of a UK exit from the European Union. The International benchmark Brent futures rose 1.89 percent to $50.11 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 2 percent to $48.94 by 12:45 GMT.

Additionally, markets receive fresh 2-year Note, 5-year Note and 7-year Notes auctions on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Also, markets receive a lighter flow of data in the week ahead, highlighted by new/existing home sales, durable goods orders and University of Michigan consumer sentiment data. However, more acute focus will be paid to Fed Chair Yellen’s semiannual monetary policy testimony before Congress, beginning with the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Futures up 27 points to 2,086 by 12:45 GMT.

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