US NFP likely to come in at 190K/210K for headline/private reads

US June non-farm payrolls expected to come in at 190K/210K for the headline/private reads. Below 200K forecast for headline NFP stems from what looks likely to be some seasonal adjustment issues in the State and Local Education sector around the end of the school year. 

Private sector headcount will look healthier and recognize some upside risk to the call if the construction space outperforms (housing data have been on a tear) and the bloodletting in the mining sector eases up. Fundamentally, the employment pipeline continues to look quite healthy. The trend in initial jobless claims is near 15yr lows; the JOLTS hires-to-openings ratio sits at a cycle low as well. 

"We look for the unemployment rate to print at 5.3% in June versus 5.5% prior",said RBC Capital Markets in a report on Thursday