US Inflation Expectations: Survey Based

Market participants know well that for long time FOMC mainly looked at poll-based inflation expectations rather than the market based ones. Poll-based one appeared far better than the latter for a long time.

But now, the long term inflation posted by University of Michigan every month were very volatile recently but displayed clear downward trend overall.

A low result in this publication might weaken the position of FOMC hawks and therefore weigh on the dollar.

"Not because it would question the December lift-off but because the December lift-off creates an effect that makes the quick continuation of the rate hike cycle seem unlikely from the market's point of view", noted Commerzbank.

The survey expects an inflation of 2.7% for the month of October, slightly dropping from that of the previous month's value.