US – May retail sales to look impressive from afar, less so up close

May retail sales (11 June, 08:30 ET) is expected to have been boosted by gas prices and strong car sales.

This strong headline figure should support expectations that consumer spending's contribution to growth may firm up in Q2 and going into H2, after dismal Q1 data. 

Standard Chartered notes:

• We see the core (ex cars and gas) reading being more uneven than the headline: we expect 0.3% m/m, a touch below consensus of 0.5%, from 0.2% in April. 
  
  
• Recent weekly chain-store sales data has been uneven; as have recent consumer spending daily polls (such as Gallup), supporting our cautious view. 
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  We still expect consumer spending to accelerate over the summer, with more widespread credit usage - signs of which are already apparent.