The variable timing of Easter regularly plays havoc with the monthly path of UK's retail sales and this year has proved no exception. The survey period for the official April data this year takes in the second half of the Easter weekend whereas a year earlier the April survey covered all of it. The result should be that the yoy rate falls, as foreshadowed by both the CBI and BRC retail surveys.
Moreover, sales rose by 1.6% mom in April 2014 so even, if modest mom growth were achieved as analysts expect, it would see the yoy rate fall. Societe Generale predicts that sales will have risen by 0.2% mom, resulting in the yoy rate falling from 5.0% to 3.6%.
