Top Analyst Warns Against Overhyping Tesla’s Robotaxi Event, Citing Delays Until 2027

As Tesla prepares to unveil its highly anticipated robotaxi, prominent Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo advises caution. Kuo predicts that mass production may not begin until 2027, citing the need for Tesla to achieve Level 4 autonomy for regulatory approval.

Analysts Differ on Tesla Robotaxi Timelines, With Launch Projections Ranging From 2025 to 2027

In a recent report by Wccftech, Tesla will unveil its most anticipated product line addition: the robotaxi. Nevertheless, some contend that "Cybercab" may have a more appealing sound. The official moniker of Tesla's most recent innovation, anticipated to embody the core of the electric vehicle manufacturer's Full Self-Driving (FSD) aspirations, will be disclosed on October 10. However, Ming-Chi Kuo, a renowned Apple supply chain analyst, cautions against becoming overly enthusiastic.

As his supply chain surveys indicate, Kuo predicts that Tesla's robotaxi will enter mass production in the first quarter of 2027. According to him, the postponement is partially due to the necessity for Tesla's Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) to achieve Level 4 autonomy, a critical prerequisite for regulatory approval.

Kuo provides additional caution: "Because mass production is still some time away, expectations for a significant rally in $TSLA following the event may be overly optimistic."

Conversely, Cathie Wood's ARK Invest maintains a more optimistic perspective. They cite Elon Musk's statements that Tesla could achieve the requisite autonomy for the robotaxi as early as "next year," with a potential formal launch in 2025-2026. Tasha Keeney, an analyst at ARK Invest, states: "Even before full autonomy is achieved, Tesla could launch a human-driven ride-hail service, which would collect valuable data on routes, customer behavior, and operational dynamics while also informing its service infrastructure and building its customer base."

Based on Musk's statements, ARK Invest anticipates a launch window between 2025 and 2026, while Kuo predicts an early 2027 launch. This creates a significant contrast. Nevertheless, Musk's timelines have frequently been less than precise, as he has promised complete autonomy for nearly a decade. In a recent FSD-related lawsuit, the judge referred to Musk's FSD claims as "corporate puffery."

Tesla Robotaxi May Leverage Existing Model 3 and Y Fleet, New AI5 System Could Include LiDAR Technology

Tesla could accelerate the deployment of its robotaxi service by deploying a fleet of existing Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, including those coming off lease and inventory. Customers could contribute to the fleet through self-enrollment options. Keeney proposes this approach.

Tesla may also have an advantage over competitors such as Waymo by omitting the necessity for HD mapping and geofencing. However, it is essential to note that Waymo's autonomous vehicles only report a disengagement every 17,311 miles, significantly better than Tesla's current performance.

The Tesla robotaxi is anticipated to utilize the same platform as Tesla's forthcoming sub-$30,000 Model 2. The vehicle, hinted at through camouflaged images, is expected to be compact. Bloomberg has reported that it will have butterfly-wing doors and only two seats. The robotaxi will be propelled by Tesla's AI5 system, the successor to HW3 and HW4, and has a capability approximately ten times greater than that of HW4. Based on the available imagery, some analysts have suggested that the AI5 may incorporate LiDAR technology.