This year's coffee crops in Brazil and Vietnam continue to differ considerably

The estimates for Brazil's 2015/2016 coffee crop, harvesting of which is now underway, continue to differ considerably, various observers pitching their forecasts from anything between 49 and nearly 52 million bags. The highest estimate of 52.4 million bags came recently from the USDA post in Brasilia, which expects Arabica coffee to recover particularly strongly. 

As a matter of fact, many observers have upwardly revised their expectations of Brazilian production of late. The National Coffee Council has criticized this trend, setting its own estimate in early May at 43.3 million bags at best. The president of Cooxupe, the world's largest coffee cooperative, anticipates roughly the same crop volume as in the drought-damaged last year. 

The prospect for 2015/16 is also uncertain when it comes to Vietnam, with expectations ranging from over 30 million bags to only a good 22 million bags. This low estimate comes courtesy of the country's almost notoriously pessimistic coffee and cocoa organization, Vicofa. It remains to be seen what impact the El Niño climate phenomenon will have, as it entails a risk of drought in Vietnam. 

The first rumours of a further deficit on the global coffee market in 2015/16 are already doing the rounds. That said, it is only estimated to be roughly half as high as in 2014/15, for which the ICO and other observers envisage a deficit of around 7 million bags.
This outlook is not helping the Arabica price, however, which is currently finding it impossible to rise above the 140 US cents per pound mark in any lasting fashion, expects Commerzbank.