The Chinese Communist Party is haunted by its soft power vacuum

Prominent Chinese dissidents such as Guo Wengui AKA Miles Kwok argue that the ruling party will never surpass the US as the soft power hegemon

As the dust eventually settled on last week’s frenzied celebrations of the Chinese Communist Party’s first century of rule, one question many analysts, commentators and critics have turned to is whether the party is capable of magnifying its power more visibly abroad.

In terms of its accomplishments at home, it is impossible to deny that the CCP has long surpassed expectations as far as the West is concerned. It has of course survived much longer than even its staunchest critics could have prophesied, but moreover, would appear to be on the rise. Testament to this is the fact that at last month’s G7 summit President Biden declared that much of the world doubted “whether or not democracies can compete”.

Prominent Chinese critics of the party, such as exiled dissident Guo Wengui AKA Miles Kwok, argue that not only is the party unsustainable at home, but its corresponding culture unappealing abroad. Mr. Kwok believes that the control required by a one-party state will become incompatible with the freedom required by a modern economy, especially from the newly ascendant middle classes. Moreover, huge challenges will arise when China’s economic growth begins to slow, leading to disillusion and protests.

So far however the party remains in firm control at home, albeit arguably increasingly paranoid. In many ways the more interesting question is whether China can improve its influence abroad. Critics like Mr. Kwok do not think so. He might well be right. China’s soft power in Europe and the United – broadly defined as the ability to influence preferences through attraction or persuasion – is certainly not all it could be, and by most measures seems to be declining.

Developing soft power has been a pillar of Chinese foreign policy since 2007 and remains a stated goal of China’s long-term policy orientation to 2035. A recent report from the European Think-tank Network on China (ETNC) identified three prominent Chinese approaches to developing soft power in Europe. Firstly, the attempt to promote Chinese language and culture. Secondly, efforts to shape China’s image through the media. Thirdly, using the secondary soft-power effects of its economic prowess.

The report also emphasizes that more recently, and over the last year in particular, China has become more assertive in attempting to shape its image by expanding its toolkit, particularly to enhance its political messaging. This includes the systematic use of social media.

These lofty ambitions, however, contrast sharply with the reality of Western perceptions of China. Against the backdrop of escalating Sino–US tensions, so-called ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’, concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic and its origins mean that Beijing’s efforts at cultural diplomacy are presently falling on deaf ears in the West. Indeed, the debate over China’s image in Europe and the US is most typically framed in terms of its human rights situation, its geopolitical overreach and the perceived unfairness in its economic relations and behaviour, in particular theft of intellectual property.

As a result of these diminishing returns in the West, China has redoubled its focus in recent years on soft power projects in Africa. In response to criticism that it is pursuing an exploitative strategy on the continent, Beijing has intensified its propaganda efforts to portray itself as a positive, benign development partner. The key components of its toolkit have included investments in media, the establishment of further Confucius Institutes, the organization of large cultural festivals, and the widespread provision of scholarships.

The expansion of Chinese media in Africa has been particularly visible, and is most marked where Western media have been in retreat. Xinhua established its foreign office in Nairobi in 2018, while China Global Television Network (CGTN), China Daily, and China Radio International all have outlets across East Africa, overshadowing competing international broadcasters.

However these are not investments which appear to be yielding a significant amount of cultural return in the form of person-to-person interactions or even warmer relations with targeted countries. They more closely resemble vanity projects designed to create positive media coverage rather than advance real exchanges or cultural links between ordinary people.

In many ways China’s approach to Africa could better be described as the exercise of “sharp power,” a term coined by Christopher Walker and Jessica Ludwig of the National Endowment for Democracy in 2017. This is broadly defined as the use of manipulative, subversive methods by authoritarian regimes to gain influence in other countries.

This is crucially different to soft power, which is not the same as mere propaganda. Aggressive propaganda, as China undertakes across the African continent, can fail entirely to produce effective soft power. This is because free-flowing channels of information are a necessary component of credibility. An active civil society - desirous of absorbing a foreign culture - is equally essential to generating soft power. Successful influence programs are never entirely state-driven projects, but rely on the private and voluntary initiatives of diverse participants such as artists, businessmen, entrepreneurs, civil society and free media.

All of these characteristics are notably lacking when it comes to China’s projections abroad. While it is anyone’s guess whether the CCP’s grip on power at home will begin to wane in the coming years, the party has yet to get a hold of hearts and minds outside its own borders.

This article does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or the management of EconoTimes