Taiwan – Slower IP growth expected in April on weak export sales

Taiwan is scheduled to release April industrial production (IP) data on 25 May. April IP growth likely slowed to 1.2% y/y from 6.49% in March - marking the softest monthly y/y gain since early 2014 on weak external demand. 

Total exports may have declined more than the market expected, by 11.7% y/y in April, mainly on flagging mainland China demand. 

Meanwhile, weak global oil prices likely had a negative impact on certain export items, such as minerals and chemical materials. 

Total capital goods imports - deemed a key measure of producers' confidence - likely also stayed in negative growth for the third consecutive month.

If the trend persists in H2- 2015, this may indicate a worrying shift lower in manufacturing confidence.