Taiwan – May trade surplus likely rose as imports fell faster than exports

Taiwan is scheduled to release the latest trade data on 8 June. The exports are likely dropped 5.25% y/y in May, less than half the 11.7% y/y decline in April. 

Tech exports were likely supported by steady overseas demand for the latest wearable mobile technology, while non-tech exports may have been dragged down by weak China demand. 

Meanwhile, imports likely fell more than exports, by 7.1% y/y, partly due to persistently weak global oil and commodity prices. 

The trade surplus therefore likely rose to USD 5.4bn in May, from USD 4.76bn in April. This suggests that the surplus could exceed USD 15bn in Q2-2015, significantly larger than the USD 9.7bn in Q2-2014. This sharp gain should contribute positively to GDP growth in Q2.