Data from statistics office GUS showed on May 19th that Poland's retail sales grew 5.5% y/y in constant prices in April, up from 3% recorded the previous month. In monthly terms, retail sales still fell 0.3%, while in current prices growth pushed to no more than 3.2% y/y and 0.3% m/m.
Strong retail sales in April suggest that private consumption can remain a major pillar of robust economic growth. That outlook is supported by a tightening labour market and the government’s child benefit programme, which launched last month.
“The strength of Polish activity data for April confirms our suspicion that the weakness seen in the first quarter was likely to prove temporary. Indeed, it looks like the economy expanded by around 3.5% y/y at the start of the second quarter," Capital Economics writes. Should that be confirmed, it would be a clear improvement on the 3% y/y GDP growth seen in the first quarter.
