Steady progress continues in US June payrolls

The BLS is expected to report that US nonfarm payrolls expanded by 210k in June, but broadly in line with the YTD average of 217k. Although job openings rose to a new record high in April, jobless claims suggest that the pace of job gains slowed somewhat in June.

Initial jobless claims averaged at 277k during the four weeks leading to the June establishment survey week, up from 267k during the preceding month which suggest marginally weaker labour market conditions.

Moreover, continuing claims increased by 21k between the two relevant survey weeks. This marks the first increase since March when continuing claims rose by 44k and nonfarm payrolls increased by just 119k. 

To be sure, 210k increase in payrolls projected would be strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate and thus mark further progress on the labour market, consistent with the Fed's stated condition for a lift-off in rates, says Societe Generale.