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Industrial output in Singapore delivered a solid performance during the month of March, as electronics continued to remain in the driving seat.
Headline industrial output for the month expanded by 10.2 percent y/y. This is another strong showing following a revised 10.2 percent run in the previous month. On the margin, production level was up by 5.0 percent m/m (s.a.), after two consecutive months of decline. The strong run in manufacturing appears unabated and any concern regarding its sustainability will be kept under the carpet for the time being.
Production output was up by 37.7 percent y/y as indicators on global electronics cycle are reflecting an upswing in electronics demand. Both billings for semiconductor equipment and shipments of semiconductors are heading to the moon. However, the strong run in electronics is largely driven by consumer demand at present. Much will depend on companies increasing their capex in the coming months, which then provide the cluster with a second wind.
The main takeaway from the most recent set of IP figures is that 1Q GDP growth figures of 2.5 percent y/y will be revised upward. The Q1 2017 advance GDP estimates assumed a manufacturing growth of 6.6 percent y/y in the quarter. As it is, the sector has now expanded by 8.1 percent. This alone will add another 0.3 percentage point to the earlier GDP growth projection, which will be closer to our forecast of 2.9 percent.
