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Currently SEK is slightly stronger than the Riksbank's forecast. This is the main reason that FX intervention is expecting to bolster the rise in Inflation.
- There are two possibilities that Riksbank may undertake. Either bank intervenes in FX market to prevent SEK appreciation or actively putting the SEK on a depreciating trend. But according to our view, to depreciate the currency is not on the table in recent time.
- Hence, we stick to the view that the Riksbank will have to cut the repo rate somewhere in first half of the year.
