In the US, the 'post the first hike'-era is set to begin. As expected, the FOMC and Janet Yellen reiterated that the hiking cycle will be gradual and data dependent. There are many important data releases over the next three weeks.
Monthly PCE inflation data for November are due on Wednesday. PCE core inflation is set to print 0.1% m/m in November, taking the annual growth rate to 1.4%, although economists admit it is a close call between 1.3% and 1.4%.
"We estimate headline PCE inflation was +0.1% m/m (0.5% y/y). There is no doubt the Fed would still very much like to see PCE core inflation moving higher and we believe this is a major reason the Fed would like to move on with the next hikes only slowly", says Danske Bank.
The jobs report for December is set to show that employment has continued to rise this month and that the labour market continues to tighten. The focus is on the growth in average hourly earnings, as higher wage growth is necessary for higher underlying inflation pressure in the US. The Phillips curve, which describes the relationship between unemployment and wage growth, shows that wage growth has been ticking up this year and is set to continue the trend next year too.
The ISM indices for December are due to be released at the beginning of the new year. ISM manufacturing in November declined to 48.6, the lowest level since June 2009.
Economists think ISM non-manufacturing will stay in the range 55-57 in coming months, suggesting further growth in the sectors outside manufacturing (mainly services).
The minutes from the FOMC meeting will be released at the beginning of the new year (6 January).
"We will read carefully and analyse the internal discussion among the FOMC members. Note also that FOMC members are now free to speak again and we will listen carefully to any speeches they may deliver", added Danske Bank.


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