FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
Polish labour market data surprised strongly in April. Unemployment in Poland fell to 9.6 percent in April, down from 10 percent in March, the Family, Work and Social Policy Ministry said last Thursday. Strong job creation was seen in manufacturing, transport and trade.
Wage growth surprised to the upside at 4.6% y/y beating forecasts at 3.8%. Adjusted for seasonal effects Polish wage growth has indeed accelerated to near 4%. This is consistent with Poland's declining unemployment rate.
However, despite wages growing steadily for quite some time now, there has been no noticeable pass-through to CPI inflation. Imported deflation has dominated. There is no reason to think that this will change soon, especially now that Polish growth momentum, itself, has begun to slip.
"Still, this reading can strengthen the hand of MPC hawks and produce a delay in the start of the rate cutting cycle, which we currently forecast to begin in Q3." notes Commerzbank in a report.
