Polish unemployment rate to keep decreasing in June

Societe Generale notes:

We estimate the unemployment rate to have declined to 10.4% in June from 10.8% in May. The seasonally-adjusted (SA) unemployment rate should be close to 10.8% and while it is continuing to fall, it should be higher than the unadjusted figure in the forthcoming months which is caused by seasonality. 

Our forecast is in line with market consensus and recent labour ministry data. According to the Polish Labour Ministry, there were 117,000 job offers reported in June (up by 38% mom). Moreover, the number of unemployed people was lower by 77,900 than it was in May. 

We expect that the unemployment rate will decline to a single digit level in the coming months and will be close to 10.0% at the end of 2015.