Poland’s industrial output growth likely accelerated in April, PPI index to remain negative until 2016-end

Poland’s industrial output is expected to have expanded last month, said Societe Generale in a research note. In March, Poland’s industrial output had grown 0.5% in March, mainly due to 5.2% y/y growth in manufacturing and 3.1% y/y growth in water supply. Industrial output growth is likely to have accelerated to 4.7% y/y in April, added Societe Generale.

PMI had fallen from 53.8 to 51 due to lower new orders and sentiment in the EU. However, it continues to be more than 50 and suggests a positive trend. Last month, growth in car production accelerated to 4.6% y/y from March’s -3.6% y/y.

Meanwhile, the nation’s PPI is likely to have accelerated in April to -1.3% y/y from March’s -1.7%. On month-on-month basis, the index is expected to have remained same, noted Societe Generale. This is likely due to higher Brent oil prices being partially rebalanced by exchange rate appreciation. Mining prices are expected to have decreased 0.2% m/m in April. Poland’s PPI is expected to remain sub-zero until late 2016, according to Societe Generale.