Oil Prices Rise Amid Strait of Hormuz Tensions and U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty

Global oil prices climbed Friday as escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt energy markets, despite U.S. President Donald Trump insisting that the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran remains active. Brent crude futures rose 1.1% to $101.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased 0.6% to $95.40 per barrel as investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route responsible for transporting nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, remains under severe pressure following months of military conflict and shipping disruptions. Iran has effectively restricted access to the waterway since late February, triggering one of the largest oil supply disruptions in recent history. The U.S. military has intensified operations in the region, including actions against Iranian-flagged oil tankers and reported retaliatory strikes near key Iranian ports.

Although military activity has increased, optimism surrounding a potential peace agreement has prevented oil prices from surging further. Iran is reportedly reviewing a new diplomatic proposal aimed at ending the conflict, while U.S. officials continue awaiting Tehran’s formal response. President Trump described the latest clashes as minor incidents and warned of stronger retaliation if negotiations fail.

Meanwhile, investors also reacted to stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data. The latest nonfarm payroll report showed the American economy added 115,000 jobs in April, beating analyst forecasts. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3%, easing some concerns over economic slowdown while keeping attention focused on inflation risks linked to rising energy prices.

Fitch Ratings also revised its oil price forecasts upward for 2026 and 2027, citing the prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The agency now expects Brent crude to average $87 per barrel this year as uncertainty over global oil supply continues to impact energy markets worldwide.