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March global PMI surveys give warning shorts on global growth

In the midst of increasing chorus of rising positive views regarding the global economic health, March PMI surveys showed a warning short. The surveys indicated the rate of global economic growth warning for the first time in six months. The deceleration was most pronounced in the euro area and the U.K. though rates of growth also eased in the U.S., Japan and throughout the emerging markets.

Temporary factors, mainly bad weather and capacity constraints, played a part in the deceleration, signifying that April’s PMI data would be all-important in giving more insight into underlying growth and price trends.

Any further softening of the U.S. and U.K. data would call into question the degree to which the U.S. Fed and Bank of England would hike rates in 2018, while any further fall in the euro area and Japan would contribute to concerns that talk of pulling back on current stimulus is premature.

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