Leading indicators point to continuing slack in Russia's retail sales

Russia's retail sales data is scheduled to publish today. A survey of consumers conducted by the Rosstat on a quarterly basis did not show any significant changes in sentiment in Q3 15 of Russia relative to the Q2 15. 

While the general population is expecting some improvement in personal and overall conditions to emerge in the near future, the current situation is still seen as being moderately depressive for the consumption of durable goods and the release of precautionary savings. Also, some anecdotal evidence of a pickup in the sales of durable goods sales in September did not prove to be wholly the case as sales of light vehicles slumped again (-28.6% yoy vs -19.4% in August and -27.4% yoy in July). 

Therefore, the available leading indicators point to a continuing slack in retail sales on a seasonally-adjusted basis albeit at a slower pace than in the Q2 15 (-0.75% mom sa versus - 0.72% mom sa in August and -0.79% mom sa on average in Q2 15). Thus, the headline sales will likely fall by 1.0% mom with the annual gauge depressively low at -8.9% yoy, says Societe Generale.