Indonesia’s October Trade Surplus Shrinks as Exports Decline

Indonesia recorded a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in October, according to official data released Monday, as exports unexpectedly weakened due to lower shipments of key mining products. The country posted a surplus of $2.4 billion, falling short of economists’ expectations of $3.72 billion from a Reuters poll and narrowing sharply from September’s $4.34 billion.

Despite the dip, Indonesia has maintained strong trade performance throughout 2025, supported by higher demand for palm oil, gold, and jewellery. These sectors have helped offset persistent pressure from weak global prices for coal and nickel—two of Indonesia’s most important commodities. The October data, however, highlights renewed challenges for Southeast Asia’s largest economy as global demand fluctuates and commodity markets remain volatile.

Exports in October dropped 2.31% year-on-year to $24.24 billion, surprising analysts who had projected growth of 3.38%. The decline was primarily attributed to softer shipments of mining-related goods, signaling that external demand, particularly from major trading partners, may be slowing more than expected. This weakness could have broader implications for Indonesia’s economic outlook, given the country’s reliance on commodity-driven revenue.

Imports also fell, contracting 1.15% to $21.84 billion, though the decline was milder than the anticipated 2.2% drop. Lower import volumes may reflect easing domestic demand or shifting industrial needs but still contributed to the overall trade surplus.

The latest figures come ahead of additional economic indicators, including inflation data, which Statistics Indonesia is set to release later on Monday. Investors and policymakers will be watching closely to assess whether softer trade momentum could influence monetary policy decisions or future growth projections.

Indonesia’s trade performance remains a crucial barometer of economic resilience, especially as global uncertainties persist. The October slowdown underscores the need for diversified export strategies and continued monitoring of global commodity trends to sustain growth moving forward.