Guggenheim: 10 Global Trends on Which Investors Should Focus

NEW YORK, Jan. 23, 2017 -- Guggenheim Investments, the global asset management and investment advisory business of Guggenheim Partners, today provided its 10 Macro Themes for 2017.

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investment and Global CIO, and Guggenheim’s Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group analyze in 10 annotated charts the global macroeconomic trends believed most likely to shape the investment environment in 2017 and beyond.

Among the major views:

• The combination of tax cuts and infrastructure spending under a range of fiscal stimulus plans—including the Trump campaign proposal—will boost GDP growth, but the impact will be determined by size, scope, and timing.
  
  
• We expect three, possibly four, rate hikes in 2017, which will result in a yield curve flattening. A barbell portfolio strategy is appropriate for this kind of market.
  
  
• Thanks to improving oil prices, easier lending conditions, and stronger economic growth, the high-yield corporate default rate will fall to 4 percent in 2017, a level below the 25-year average. Investors should maintain exposure to leveraged credit.
   
• Oil will rise but average less than $60 per barrel, the unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent, and inflation will be contained.

About Guggenheim Investments

Guggenheim Investments is the global asset management and investment advisory division of Guggenheim Partners, with $204 billion¹ in assets across fixed income, equity, and alternative strategies. We focus on the return and risk needs of insurance companies, corporate and public pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowments and foundations, consultants, wealth managers, and high-net-worth investors. Our 275+ investment professionals perform rigorous research to understand market trends and identify undervalued opportunities in areas that are often complex and underfollowed. This approach to investment management has enabled us to deliver innovative strategies providing diversification and attractive long-term results.

¹Guggenheim Investments' total asset figure is as of 9.30.2016 and includes $11.7 billion of leverage for assets under management and $0.5 billion for assets for which Guggenheim provides administrative services. Guggenheim Investments represents the following affiliated investment management businesses: Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, LLC, Security Investors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Investment Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Funds Distributors, LLC, Guggenheim Real Estate, LLC, GS GAMMA Advisors, LLC, Guggenheim Partners Europe Limited and Guggenheim Partners India Management.

This material is distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investing advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. This article contains opinions of the author but not necessarily those of Guggenheim Partners or its subsidiaries. The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice. Forward looking statements, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary and non-proprietary research and other sources. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but are not assured as to accuracy. No part of this article may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of Guggenheim Partners, LLC. ©2017, Guggenheim Partners. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is neither representation nor warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.

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Ivy McLemore
Guggenheim Partners 
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