U.S. Government Faces Brief Shutdown as Congress Delays Funding Deal 
China Home Prices Rise in January as Government Signals Stronger Support for Property Market 
Oil Prices Hit Four-Month High as Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions Intensify 
Copper Prices Hit Record Highs as Metals Rally Gains Momentum on Geopolitical Tensions 
Wall Street Slips as Tech Stocks Slide on AI Spending Fears and Earnings Concerns 
Trump Threatens 50% Tariff on Canadian Aircraft Amid Escalating U.S.-Canada Trade Dispute 
Wall Street Slides as Warsh Fed Nomination, Hot Inflation, and Precious Metals Rout Shake Markets 
Dollar Struggles as Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Markets Despite Official Support 
Gold and Silver Prices Plunge as Trump Taps Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair 
Canada’s Trade Deficit Jumps in November as Exports Slide and Firms Diversify Away From U.S. 
Asian Currencies Hold Firm as Dollar Rebounds on Fed Chair Nomination Hopes 
Oil Prices Surge Toward Biggest Monthly Gains in Years Amid Middle East Tensions 
South Korea Exports Surge in January on AI Chip Demand, Marking Fastest Growth in 4.5 Years 
Asian Stocks Waver as Trump Signals Fed Pick, Shutdown Deal and Tech Earnings Stir Markets 
U.S.–Venezuela Relations Show Signs of Thaw as Top Envoy Visits Caracas 
Gold Prices Pull Back After Record Highs as January Rally Remains Strong 
Trump to Announce New Federal Reserve Chair Pick as Powell Replacement Looms 
Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 35%, up from its previous estimate of 20%. The investment bank cited growing uncertainty around trade policy, weakening consumer and business confidence, and a lower economic growth baseline as key drivers behind the revision.
The updated forecast reflects the deteriorating sentiment among households and companies, alongside recent signals from White House officials suggesting a greater tolerance for short-term economic pain in pursuit of more aggressive trade policies. President Donald Trump is expected to announce sweeping new tariffs on April 2, a date he has called "liberation day." These tariffs could include across-the-board 20% rates on major trading partners.
Goldman Sachs has also raised its U.S. tariff projections for the second time in a month, now expecting an average tariff rate of 15% in 2025. The firm warned that such protectionist measures would likely fuel inflation. Core PCE inflation is now projected to hit 3.5% by the end of 2025, significantly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
In addition to rising inflation expectations, Goldman lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1%, down from 1.5%, reflecting the economic drag of higher tariffs and persistent inflationary pressures. The bank’s economists expressed concern that Trump’s push for “reciprocal tariffs” could further strain the economy.
As inflation remains sticky and trade tensions escalate, fears of a slowdown are rising. Goldman Sachs' revised outlook underscores the potential impact of Trump's trade agenda on the broader U.S. economy, especially if tariffs drive up consumer prices and dampen growth.
