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Gnosis launches Ethereum-powered decentralized platform for prediction markets

Gnosis, a decentralized prediction platform built on Ethereum, has launched its decentralized platform for prediction markets, which follows its beta launch last August.

The platform will allow anyone to create a prediction market for any event and be rewarded for accuracy. Founded by Martin Köppelmann and Stefan George, Gnosis is the first project founded within blockchain venture studio ConsenSys. The Gnosis Advisory board includes Ethereum founders Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin.

Built on Ethereum, Gnosis provides an open platform for anyone to predict the outcome of any event, and simplifies the creation of customized prediction market applications for individuals and enterprises. Gnosis explains this using an example – when someone creates a market on the outcome of a political election, people world over could predict the likelihood of outcomes, and Gnosis will aggregate predictions and make real-time market adjustments. When the actual event occurs, the market rewards participants who accurately predicted the event.

“Gnosis is part of a new wave of decentralized platforms, key to which is permissionless innovation,” said Martin Köppelmann, cofounder of Gnosis. “Having an open platform with verifiable behavior introduces an incredible opportunity to bring a wide range of applications onto Gnosis, many of which we never anticipated. Gnosis lowers the barrier to entry for new applications spanning industries and interests.”

Gnosis collects information by financially incentivizing good information and disincentivizing bad information. By creating efficient markets for forecasting, it aggregates all information sources optimally and creates data layers for probabilities, giving each future outcome a quantified probability of occurring. This data feed can be used for any third-party application and can power Artificial Intelligence, the release said.

With its objective to make prediction markets accessible and easy-to-use for everyone, Gnosis says that all types of apps can be built on top of it including the Gnosis Twitter Bot. The Twitter Bot tweets every three hours on the outcome prices of selected markets. Anyone can reply to the tweet with their predictions using the message:

“Lower 1 ETH”. Bet 1 ETH on NO Outcome.

"Higher 1 ETH”. Bet 1 ETH on YES Outcome.

The Twitter Bot replies showing how the outcome probability will change with a QR code you can scan with Uport to perform the transaction. To use the bot, users just need to configure their Uport account.

Together with Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin and Alex Van de Sande, Gnosis has created a new auction mechanism for an upcoming token sale, according to the official release. The token price is determined by how long it takes for $12.5 million USD in Ether to be sent to the Gnosis sale contract. The longer this takes, the lower the price-per-token will be. At the end of the sale, everyone receives tokens at the lowest price a Gnosis token is sold for. Interested participants will be able to participate in the token auction beginning April 24, 2017.

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