Global Coffee Shortage Likely to Persist Despite Brazil’s Large Harvest

Global coffee stocks may take years to recover, industry experts warned at the Coffee Dinner & Summit in Brazil, citing ongoing supply-demand imbalances and unpredictable climate patterns. Despite a promising harvest expected in Brazil—the world’s top coffee producer and exporter—experts say this won’t be enough to quickly rebuild depleted global inventories.

Coffee prices surged to record highs earlier this year due to consecutive years of supply deficits and stable or rising global demand. Industry leaders caution that the market needs at least two consecutive strong harvests to restore stock levels to those seen four years ago. However, achieving back-to-back bumper crops remains unlikely due to climate volatility and the natural biennial cycle of arabica coffee plants.

Luiz Fernando dos Reis, commercial superintendent at Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative, said stockpiles won’t rebuild significantly in the short term. “We need at least two good harvests, and even then, the 2026/27 crop is likely to be followed by a weaker one,” he noted.

Charles Chiapolino, coffee research director at Louis Dreyfus Company, echoed this sentiment, saying it’s “almost impossible” to count on favorable weather conditions globally for two consecutive years.

German Bahamon, CEO of the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, added that with demand holding steady or growing in many markets, “no one can build stocks right now.”

With rising consumption and volatile production, the global coffee market faces continued pressure. Even with Brazil’s optimistic harvest outlook, consumers may not see immediate price relief, and supply concerns are likely to persist well into the future.