FxWirePro: Hedging Flows and Trading Ideas in US Treasuries

The US Federal Reserve has recently given a vibrant indication that the tightening cycle is over. Quantitative tightening will also end earlier than previously expected, helping to ensure global liquidity remains flush.

Treasuries continued to rally, with movements concentrated in the front end, steep ending the 2s/10s curve.  Longer-dated USD swap spreads have narrowed sharply on convexity, hedging flows from RMBS investors.

The US Treasuries price action continued where it left off last week, with 10-year yields down another 2.5bps. USD swap spreads have capitulated on convexity hedging flows: 10-year swap spreads are now at their lowest since 2017. German bund yields were dragged lower by Treasuries after an initial sell-off following positive IFO Survey data. There was a widening of peripheral spreads in European yields, with Italian, Spanish and Portuguese yields up 3-5bps. Equity markets were broadly lower, with the FTSE closing off 0.4%, the DAX down 0.2%. The Dow Jones was up 0.1% and the Nasdaq was flat. The Apple services launch was not particularly well received by investors (AAPL -1.6%). WTI is currently up 0.7% at USD59.98/b, while gold is up 0.6% higher at USD1,322/oz.

Trading tips: Stay long in 3Mx2Y vs 3Mx30Y ATMF swaption straddles, simultaneously uphold longs in 3Mx2Y ATMF straddles with $1.5bn notional (notification 6/3/19, maturity 6/5/21, strike: 2.63%) at 35c vs selling 3Mx30Y ATMF straddles with $141mn notional (notification 6/3/19, maturity 6/5/49, strike 2.92%) at 415c. P/L since inception: +3.1abp. Courtesy: ANZ & JPM

Currency Strength Index: FxWirePro's hourly EUR spot index is flashing 19 (which is mildly bullish), while hourly USD spot index was at 108 (bullish) while articulating (at 09:50 GMT).

For more details on the index, please refer below weblink: http://www.fxwirepro.com/currencyindex