Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
Markets React as Tensions Rise Between White House and Federal Reserve Over Interest Rate Pressure 
MAS Holds Monetary Policy Steady as Strong Growth Raises Inflation Risks 
Stock Futures Dip as Investors Await Key Payrolls Data 
BOJ Policymakers Warn Weak Yen Could Fuel Inflation Risks and Delay Rate Action 
Goldman Predicts 50% Odds of 10% U.S. Tariff on Copper by Q1 Close 
2025 Market Outlook: Key January Events to Watch 
BTC Flat at $89,300 Despite $1.02B ETF Exodus — Buy the Dip Toward $107K? 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
UBS Projects Mixed Market Outlook for 2025 Amid Trump Policy Uncertainty 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
JPMorgan Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $6,300 by End-2026 on Strong Central Bank and Investor Demand 
A few more central banks tiptoe to the exit 2017 was the year in which more central banks broke ranks. We expect this to continue in 2018. The Fed will hike four times and the BoC two, which supports long positions in USD and CAD.
EUR should benefit from the prospect of the ECB completing QE just as it rallied on the expectation of tapering this year.
We pair EUR vs NZD to neutralize the risk to EURUSD from a further repricing of the Fed. The RBNZ is an unlikely candidate to signal tighter policy as the slowdown in migration intensifies the downturn in housing and argues against a policy response to upside inflation risks from minimum wage increase etc. The 3m window KO halves the premium compared to a digital call.
In Sweden, the prospects of a policy pivot were delayed not derailed this year. EURSEK is currently overshooting cyclicals by over 4% the most since 2010. The rebound in inflation to 2.0% in November reduces the risk of the central bank extending QE again next week (this was 0.3% ppt higher than the Riksbank's estimate), although it could still push back the lift-off point for rates by a quarter to 3Q18 in order to better align itself with the ECB’s extension of QE through September.
Long a 9-mo 1.80 EURNZD digital call with a 3m 1.80 window KO. Paid 17.5% on November 21. Marked at 19.04%.
Long a 6m 9.60 EUR put/SEK call. Paid 57.2bp November 21. Revalued at 52bp.
We advocate deploying shorts in futures contracts of near-month tenors with a view to arresting further potential bearish risks of USDCAD, alternatively, we advocate buying USDCAD 3m risk reversal strikes 1.3440/1.2450 (at spot ref: 1.2068).
