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FxWirePro: EUR/CAD holds 50-DMA support at 1.4768, weakness only on break below

  • EUR/CAD has taken support at 50-DMA at 1.4768. We see weakness only on break below.
     
  • The shared currency remains bid following the release of better-than-expected flash Euro-zone PMI prints for August.
     
  • Also, rising market expectations of a possible ECB tapering clues at the Jackson Hole Symposium keep euro supported.
     
  • Technical indicators are still bearish. RSI and stochs are biased lower while MACD shows bearish crossover on signal line.
     
  • The pair is extending decline in a symmetric triangle pattern, break below 50-DMA raises scope for test of triangle base.
     
  • Breach of triangle base then eyes 200-DMA at 1.4461. Bearish invalidation on close above 20-DMA at 1.4859.

Support levels - 1.4819 (5-DMA), 1.4768 (50-DMA), 1.4630 (trendline), 1.4461 (200-DMA)

Resistance levels - 1.4859 (20-DMA), 1.4869 (cloud top), 1.4985 (trendline)

Recommendation: Watch out for decisive break below 50-DMA to go short.

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September 20 15:30 UTC Released

BRForeign Exchange Flows*

Actual

2.161 Bln USD

Forecast

Previous

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September 20 14:30 UTC Released

TRCentral Govt Debt Stock*

Actual

820.5 Bln TRY

Forecast

Previous

817.1 Bln TRY

September 21 08:30 UTC 428428m

GBPSNB, MM GBP

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-0.76 Bln GBP

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Actual

Forecast

Previous

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GBPSNB Ex Banks GBP

Actual

Forecast

7.100 Bln GBP

Previous

-0.184 Bln GBP

September 21 12:00 UTC 638638m

BRIPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI

Actual

Forecast

0.15 %

Previous

0.35 %

September 21 12:00 UTC 638638m

BRIPCA-15 Mid-Month CPI YY*

Actual

Forecast

2.60 %

Previous

2.68 %

September 21 12:30 UTC 668668m

CAWholesale Trade MM

Actual

Forecast

-0.9 %

Previous

-0.5 %

September 21 12:30 UTC 668668m

USInitial Jobless Claims

Actual

Forecast

300 k

Previous

284 k

September 21 12:30 UTC 668668m

USJobless Claims 4-Wk Avg

Actual

Forecast

Previous

263.25 k

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