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Fed Hike aftermath Series: Hike probabilities over coming meetings

FOMC followed through its promise and hiked rates four times in 2018 and forecasted two more rate hikes for 2019. Current Federal funds rate - 225-250 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 18th March)

  • March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 1.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 98.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 96.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 9.7 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 90.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 13.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 86.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 17.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 82.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 19.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 80.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
     
  • December 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 26.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and 73.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.

The probability is suggesting,

  • Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have significantly eased.
  • The market is pricing no rate hike for 2019.
  • However, the market is pricing the possibility of a rate cut with 26.4 percent probability, compared to 16.1 percent last week, and 0 percent in the week before that.  
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July 2 15:00 UTC Released

DKCurrency Reserves

Actual

449.6 Stale

Forecast

Previous

451.7 Stale

July 2 13:45 UTC Released

USISM NY Biz Conditions

Actual

50 %

Forecast

Previous

48.6 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 766512766512m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 766512766512m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 778332778332m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 766512766512m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 22 19:00 UTC 778332778332m

ARTrade Balance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

-1541 %

January 31 00:00 UTC 766512766512m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 766512766512m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

January 31 00:00 UTC 766512766512m

ARAnnual Primary Balance*

Actual

Forecast

2016 bln ARS

Previous

Bln AR bln ARS

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