Fed Hike aftermath Series: Hike probabilities over coming meetings

FOMC increased interest rates in March, June and in September. Increased its forecast from three rate hikes in 2018 to four rate hikes. September decision was unanimous. Current Federal funds rate - 200-225 bps (Note, all calculations are based on data as of 26th November)

• December 2018 meeting: Market is attaching 25.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, and, 74.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent.
   
• January 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 24.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 72 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 3.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent.
   
• March 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 12.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 48.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 37 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 1.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
   
• May 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 11.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 44.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 38.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, and 6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent.
   
• June 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 8.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 36.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 39.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, 13.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent, 1.6 percent probability that rates will be at 3.00-3.25 percent.
   
• July 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 7.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 33.3 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 39.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, 16.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent, 2.9 percent probability that rates will be at 3.00-3.25 percent, and 0.2 percent probability that rates will be at 3.25-3.50 percent.
   
• September 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 6.1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 28.5 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 38.4 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, 20.9 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent, 5.4 percent probability that rates will be at 3.00-3.25 percent, and 0.7 percent probability that rates will be at 3.25-3.50 percent.
   
• October 2019 meeting: Market is attaching 5.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent, 26.8 percent probability that rates will be at 2.25-2.50 percent, and 37.6 percent probability that rates will be at 2.50-2.75 percent, 22.2 percent probability that rates will be at 2.75-3.00 percent, 6.6 percent probability that rates will be at 3.00-3.25 percent, and 1.1 percent probability that rates will be at 3.25-3.50 percent.
   

The probability is suggesting,

• Since our last review a week ago, the probabilities have remained broadly unchanged.
• The market is pricing a fourth hike in December with 74.1 percent probability compared to 72.3 percent a week ago.
• The first rate hike of 2019 is priced in March with 38.6 percent probability, compared to 39.5 percent a week ago.
• The second hike for 2019 is now priced in September with a 27 percent probability, compared to 30.5 percent a week ago.