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Fed Hike Aftermath Series: Market becoming increasingly confident of third rate hike in December despite weak data

A weaker than expected ADP employment report rocked the markets yesterday, which pushed down the dollar against most of its major trading counterparts. The market participants have been beating the dollar, whenever there are signs of weakness in the U.S. economy as portrayed by data. However, we can’t say that the same is happening in the interest rates market.

The financial market is waking up to the idea that inflation or weak job numbers are not affecting the rate hike path of the United States. It seems that the Fed is on a mission to deliver on its promises to increase interest rates from the third time this year. It is also thought that the policymakers would begin trimming the balance sheet in September. FOMC policymakers look at numerous data as well as national and international development and the recent commentaries suggest that the risk stemming from a loose monetary policy is currently one of the top considerations.

Ahead of today’s non-farm payroll report, as per Federal funds future, the market is pricing a 60 percent probability that policymakers would hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting.

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