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If the RBA’s right, interest rates may not fall for another year. Here’s why. 
The market is now evenly divided in its opinion of a rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve. After the Britons voted to exit from the European Union in the June referendum, hike odds for this year declined to 10 percent, however as the financial markets weathered the Brexit storm better than expected, the odds kept rising once more and now recent commentaries from FOMC policymakers have pushed it to 50 percent.
On Tuesday, New York Fed President, who has a permanent vote in the policy meeting, Bill Dudley said that the market is underestimating the possibility of a rate hike from the Fed this year. He also said that a rate hike could come as early as next month. Dennis Lockhart, President of the Atlanta Fed gave a similar signal. In a speech, he said, “if my confidence in the economy proves to be justified, I think at least one increase of the policy rate could be appropriate later this year”.
The dollar, on the other hand, remained relatively weak. It is down more than a percent this week so far. We at FxWirePro believe that even if the Fed goes for a hike this year but the path isn’t upgraded considerably, the dollar would find it difficult to sustain strength. The dollar index is currently trading at 95.
