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FxWirePro: Daily Commodity Tracker - 21st March, 2022 
The main focus of the minutes will be on the economic assessment and outlook. The Committee significantly downgraded their assessment of current conditions in the April 29 FOMC statement, noting that the pace of job gains moderated, growth in household spending declined, business investment softened and exports declined.
However, the statement also noted that the slowdown partly reflected transitory factors and that the Committee continuedto expect activity to expand at a moderate pace. Therefore it was not clear to what extent the recent weakness in activity would reduce the FOMC's forecast for growth this year. Although the minutes will not reveal the extent of any forecasts changes, they will at least offer more color on the Committee's latest thinking about the outlook.
The FOMC will release its new forecasts following the June meeting, and the revisions could have significant implications for the timing of lift-off and the pace of subsequent tightening.
Also of interest will be the continued discussion about exit tools. In the March minutes, the Committee floated various ideas for quickly reducing the size of the ON RRP (overnight reverse repo facility) which included
- (1) widening the spread between the IOER and the ON RRP rate
- (2) selling assets with relatively short maturities
- (3) or an earlier end reinvestment
A number of advantages are seen to normalizing the balance sheet which would put less upward pressure on the dollar, be more effecting at preventing excessive asset price inflation, and reduce the reliance on the ON RRP facility (albeit modestly).
"Although the liftoff is expected to still be the first step in the normalization process, economists would not be surprised if the FOMC shifts the blend of its two normalization tools toward slightly fewer hikes and a bit more tightening via the balance sheet", according to Societe Generale.
