Market Roundup
- EUR/USD flat, USD/JPY +0.02%, GBP/USD -0.2%, DXY +0.2%
- DAX -0.1%, FTSE -0.4%, Brent -0.3%, Gold -0.1%, Copper -1.1%
- Dollar edges up, on track for weekly gain, quarterly loss
- EZ Mar Inflation, flash 1.5% y/y vs previous 2.0%. 1.8% forecast
- Great Britain Mar Nationwide house prices -0.3% m/m, +3.5% y/y vs previous 0.6%/4.5%. 0.4%/4.1% forecast
- Great Britain Q4 GDP +0.7% q/q, +1.9% y/y vs previous 0.7%/2.0%. 0.7%/2.0% forecast
- Great Britain Q4 Business invest -0.9% q/q, -0.9% y/y vs previous +0.4% revised/-0.9%
- Great Britain Q4 Current Account -12.088bln vs previous -25.70bln. -16.00bln forecast
- German adjusted jobless total falls by 30,000 in March
- EUCB Coeure: We're not at lower bound but we don't know that level
- EU/IMF mission chiefs to decide today on return to Greece for bailout talks
- EU's Tusk says sure security not a bargaining chip in Brexit talks
- Germany urges EU to file WTO complaint against U.S. in steel row
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases personal income figures for February, which is expected to rise 0.4 percent after posting similar gains in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Commerce Department releases the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for the month of February. The index rose at an annualized rate of 1.9 percent in the prior month while core PCE increased 1.7 percent in the same period.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Personal spending is likely to rise 0.2 percent in the month of February after a similar gain in January,
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada is expected to report that gross domestic product increased 0.3 percent in January.
- (0945 ET/1345 GMT) Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index is likely to show that business conditions fell to 56.5 in March from 57.4 last month.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The University of Michigan is likely to report that U.S. preliminary consumer sentiment index remained unchanged at 97.6 in March.
- (1400 ET/1800 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count.
Key Events Ahead
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari participates in a Q/A session before the 2017 Minnesota CLE Annual Banking Law Institute in Minneapolis.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) St. Louis Fed President James Bullard participates in an interview on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before the Quinnipiac Global Asset Management Education VII Forum, in New York.
- (1145 ET/1645 GMT) FedTrade 30-year Ginnie Mae securities (max $1.125 bn)
- (1700 ET/2100 GMT) Bank of England MPC Member Andrew G Haldane's Speech
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar gained versus its major peers as investors wait to watch the Federal Open Market Committee members James Bullard and Neel Kashkari’s speech for further insights on the central bank's monetary policy outlook. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded up at 100.52, having hit a high of 100.65 earlier, its highest since Mar. 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 101.62 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro edged up after declining to a 2-week low as investors ignored downbeat preliminary inflation figures in the euro area. The continents flash headline consumer prices rose at an annualized rate of 1.5 percent during the month of March, while flash core CPI gained 0.7 percent over the last twelve months. The European currency traded flat at 1.0679, having touched a low of 1.0670 earlier, its lowest since Mar. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -167.91 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, any break below 1.0650 confirms minor weakness, a decline till 1.06000 (Mar 14th low) is possible. The near term resistance is around 1.0760 (support turned into resistance) and any violation above will take it to next level till 1.0790/1.0820.
USD/JPY: The dollar eased after rising to a 10-day high above the 112.00 handle following a turnaround in the trading sentiment surrounding European equity markets. However, a rebound in the treasury yields across the curve limited the downside. The pair traded 0.10 percent down at 111.80, pulling away from a high of 112.19 touched earlier, its highest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -17.21 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, any break above 112.20 (100- day EMA) will take the pair till 112.90 (55- day EMA)/113.44. The near term support is around 110 and any break below will drag the pair till 108.65.
GBP/USD: Sterling slumped after data showed Britain's growth lowered slightly to 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a previous estimate of 2.0 percent, indicating that the economy has lost some of its resilience following the Brexit vote. Investors now wait for the European Union's official response to Britain's letter of exit from the bloc for further momentum on the major. Sterling trades 0.1 percent lower at 1.2449, drifting towards a low of 1.2376 hit on Wednesday, its lowest since Mar. 21. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 19.17 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, near term support is around 1.24300 (trend line joining 1.21088 and 1.23760) and any break below will drag the pair down till 1.23750/1.2320/1.2260/1.2200/1.2108 (Mar 14th low). The near term resistance is around 1.2480 and any indicative break above will take it till 1.2520/1.2580/1.2635/1.2706 (Feb 2nd high). Against the euro, the pound traded flat at 85.62 pence, having hit a high of 85.43 earlier, its highest since Mar 1.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc edged up after declining to an early 2-week low as the greenback turned lower amid risk-off market sentiment. The major traded 0.05 percent down at 1.0007, hovering away from a high of 1.0014, its strongest since Mar. 16. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -83.56 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. The major near resistance is around 1.0023 (55- day EMA) and any sustained close above indicated that decline from 1.03435 got completed at 0.98136. On the lower side, near term support is around 0.9960 and nay violation below will take the pair till 0.9912 (200- day MA) / 0.98600/ 0.98100.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar trimmed gains as prevalent cautious sentiment around European equity markets and recovering U.S. treasury yields weakened the bid tone around the major. The pair trades flat at 0.7641, having hit a high of 0.7679 on Thursday, it’s highest since Mar. 23. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at 111.14 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, the next immediate support stands at 0.75875 (61.8% retracement of 0.74910 and 0.77490) and any break below will drag the pair down till 0.7545 (200- day MA)/0.7490. The major resistance is around 0.7750 (Feb 23 high) and a break above will take it till 0.7800.
Equities Recap
European shares declined in early trade, dragged lower by losses among miners and other South African-exposed stocks, while the greenback gained as investors await the FOMC officials' speech for further cues on the central bank's monetary policy outlook.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.27 percent to 379.43 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index declined 0.25 percent to 1,496.91 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.47 percent down at 7,335.43 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 slumped 0.63 percent to 18,891.84 points.
Germany's DAX edged down 0.02 percent at 12,256.05 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.14 percent lower at 5,082.32 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei fell 0.81 percent to 18,909.26 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index eased 0.28 percent to 5,879.70 points and South Korea's KOSPI lost 0.20 percent to 2,160.23 points.
Shanghai composite index rose 0.6 percent to 3,222.51 points, while CSI300 index dropped 0.6 percent to 3,456.05 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shed 0.8 percent to 24,111.59 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined after rising for consecutive three days as investors worried that growing U.S. supplies undermined OPEC-led cuts. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.3 percent down at $52.89 per barrel by 1002 GMT, having hit a high of $53.13 the prior day, its strongest since Mar. 9. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3 percent to $50.16 a barrel, after rising as high as $50.45 on Thursday, its highest since Mar. 9.
Gold tumbled to a fresh 10-day low as the greenback strengthened and was on track to finish March down about 0.5 percent, its first monthly decline this year. Spot gold eased 0.1 percent at $1,241.75 per ounce at 1006 GMT, having hit a low of $1,239.53 earlier, its lowest its Mar. 21. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2 percent to $1,242.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries traded mixed as investors wait to watch the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members James Bullard and Neel Kashkari’s speech, scheduled to be held later in the day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury remained flat at 2.41 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields climbed nearly 1 basis point to 3.03 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note slipped 1/2 basis point to 1.28 percent.
The UK gilts remained subdued as investors largely shrugged off the lower-than-expected fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) and business investment data. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, jumped 1-1/2 basis points to 1.13 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields climbed 1/2 basis point to 1.71 percent while the yield on the short-term 2-year traded nearly 1 basis points up at 0.11 percent.
The German bunds slid, after reading wider-than-expected decline in the country’s unemployment rate during the month of March. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, rose 1 basis point to 0.34 percent, the long-term 15-year bond yields rose 1/2 basis point to 0.54 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year bond traded 1 basis point higher at -0.73 percent.
The Japanese government bonds slumped, after reading the improvement in the country’s consumer price inflation during the month of February. The benchmark 10-year bond yield, rose nearly 1 basis point to 0.07 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yields jumped 1-1/2 basis points to 0.84 percent and the yield on the short-term 3-year note traded 1 basis point higher at -0.18 percent.
The New Zealand bonds closed a tad higher at the time of closing, following a drop in the country’s business confidence. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, fell 1 basis point to 3.21 percent at the time of closing, the yield on 7-year note also slipped nearly 1 basis point to 2.80 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note also traded 1 basis point lower at 2.16 percent.
The Australian bonds traded flat, tracking similar movement in the U.S. Treasuries. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, hovered around 2.70 percent, the yield on 15-year note traded flat at 3.08 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year also remained steady at 1.76 percent.
