Market Roundup
• Euro looks to policymakers for fiscal response
• Coronavirus threatens global energy demand
• Oil turmoil rattles FX market
• French Business Survey 82, 83 forecast, 98 previous
• UK March Public Sector Net Borrowing 2.33B, 2.30B forecast, 0.07B previous
• UK March Public Sector Net Cash Requirement 7.208B , 1.350B previous
• German May GfK German Consumer Climate -23.4, -1.8 forecast, 2.7 previous
• French April Manufacturing PMI 31.5, 37.5 forecast, 43.2 previous
• French April Markit Composite PMI 11.2, 26.0 forecast, 28.9 previous
• French April Services PMI 10.4, 25.0 forecast, 27.4 previous
• German April Composite PMI 17.1, 31.0 forecast, 35.0 previous
• German Manufacturing PMI 34.4, 39.0 forecast, 45.4 previous
• German April Services PMI 15.9, 28.5 forecast, 31.7 previous
• EU April Manufacturing PMI 33.6, 39.2 forecast, 44.5 previous
• EU April Markit Composite PMI 13.5, 25.7 forecast, 29.7 previous
• EU April Services PMI 11.7, 23.8 forecast, 26.4 previous
• UK Composite PMI 12.9, 31.4 forecast, 36.0 previous
• UK Manufacturing PMI 32.9, 42.0 forecast, 47.8 previous
• UK Services PMI 12.3, 29.0 forecast, 34.5 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
• 12::30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 16,476K forecast, 11,976K previous
• 12::30 US Initial Jobless Claims 4,200K forecast, 5,245K previous
• 12::30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 5,508.50K previous
• 13::00 Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 564.9B previous
• 13:00 Russia March PPI (YoY) -1.2% previous
• 13:45 US April Manufacturing PMI 38.0 fotrecast, 48.5 previous
• 13:45 US April Markit Composite PMI 40.9 previous
• 13:45 US April Services PMI 31.5 forecast, 39.8 previous
• 14:00 US March New Home Sales 645K forecast, 765K previous
• 14:00 US March New Home Sales (MoM) -15.0% forecast, -4.4% previous
• 15:00 US April KC Fed Composite Index -17 previous
• 15:00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Index -18 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• 18:00 US FOMC Member Williams Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro fell to its lowest in a month against dollaron Thursday after data showed economic activity in the euro zone virtually halted by government-imposed lockdowns to stop the coronavirus pandemic. The euro was last at $1.07795, with investors awaiting the result of a meeting of European Union leaders on the bloc’s response to the economic turmoil caused by the pandemic.The summit will bring a move towards joint financing to help the bloc recover from a forecast deep recession caused by the pandemic by asking the European Commission to propose a fund big enough to target the most affected sectors and regions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0836 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0876 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0722 (lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0700 (Psychological level).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Thursday even after dire UK preliminary PMI readings for April fell far below even the most pessimistic forecasts, as market activity appears immune to new data about the disastrous economic fallout from the coronavirus.The IHS Markit/CIPS Flash UK Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a new record low of 12.9 from 36.0 in March - not even close to the weakest forecast in a Reuters poll of economists that had pointed to a reading of 31.4. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2379 (5 DMA ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2456 (11 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2225 (30 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2200 (Psychological level ).
USD/CHF: The dollar erased some of earlier gains against swiss franc on Thursday, as a rebound in crude prices after an unprecedented collapse helped to calm markets unnerved by the massive coronavirus-led drop in global demand. The greenback initially shrugged off the rebound in oil prices because the gains were slight. However, the dollar lost strength as oil futures extended gains, which decreases the safe-haven appeal of holding funds in dollars. At (GMT 12:15), greenback was up 0.43% versus the Swiss franc to 0.9757. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9780 (Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9814 (23.6 % fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9700 (5 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9676 (11 DMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Thursday as caution gripped markets, with stocks falling before a key Eurogroup meeting to discuss joint stimulus measures, offsetting optimism from a fresh round of U.S. coronavirus aid and a recovery in oil prices. The U.S. Congress looked on course to approve nearly $500 billion more in aid to help small businesses, while European Union leaders make another attempt at agreeing on a joint recovery fund. Strong resistance can be seen at 107.70 (11 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.99 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.43 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 107.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European stock markets headed lower on Friday, erasing meagre gains for the week, as more companies flagged a hit to business from the coronavirus pandemic, foreshadowing a deeper earnings recession ahead of the reporting season.
At (GMT 12:15),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.08 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.20 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil rose on Thursday, spurred by rising tensions in the Middle East, output cuts by producing nations to tackle oversupply and the promise of more government stimulus to ease the economic pain of the new coronavirus pandemic.
Brent crude was up $1.53, 7.5%, at $21.90 a barrel by 0822 GMT. U.S. crude rose $1.53, or 11.1%, at $15.31 a barrel.
Gold rose to a one-week high on Thursday on the expectation of more stimulus from major central banks to limit the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic, with most countries extending lockdowns to curtail its spread.
Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,724.39 per ounce by 1004 GMT. U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% at $1,747.50.
Treasuries Recap
Italian government debt yields fell on Thursday on hopes that European Union leaders were prepared to agree to joint financing of a recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.
Italian two-year government bond yields were down 9 basis points at 0.967%, having fallen earlier as much as 12 bps to 0.94%, the lowest since Monday. A day earlier, they rose as high as 1.257%. Ten-year yields also fell by the same amount to 2.015%.
