Market Roundup
- EUR/USD 0.05%, USD/JPY 0.03%, GBP/USD 0%, EUR/GBP 0.01%
- DXY -0.03%, DAX -0.03%, FTSE 0.17%, Brent -0.02%, Gold -0.18%
- U.S. job growth seen accelerating from 17-month trough
- Britain's May asks EU for Brexit extension to June 30; EU could offer a year
- EU worries about recession risks in Italy, German slowdown
- Germany Feb Industrial Orders MM, -4.2%, 0.3% f'cast, -2.6% prev, -2.1% rvsd
- France Feb Trade Balance, EUR, SA, -4.00 bln, -4.70 bln f'cast, -4.20 bln prev
- France Feb Exports, EUR Approx Time, 42.90 bln, 42.46 bln prev
- France Feb Imports, EUR Approx Time, 46.90 bln, 46.65 bln prev
- UK Mar Halifax House Prices MM, -1.6%, -2.4% f'cast, 5.9% prev, 6.0% rvsd
- Oil prices edge lower on economic concerns, but geopolitics support
- Gold dips towards 10-week low ahead of U.S. jobs data
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Labor Department releases nonfarm payrolls report for the month of March. The report is likely to show 180,000 jobs were added compared with an increase of 20,000 in February.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Labor Department is expected to report that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8 percent in March.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release labour force participation rate for the month of March. The rate stood at 63.2 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The United States' average hourly earnings are likely to rise 0.3 percent in March after climbing 0.4 percent in the month before.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The Statistics Canada releases employment report for March. The economy probably added 1,000 jobs, compared to a rise of 55,900 jobs in February, while the participation rate is expected to edge down to 65.7 percent from 65.8 percent in the previous month.
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) Canada's unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 5.8 percent for the month of March.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Baker Hughes reports U.S. Oil Rig Count.
- (1500 ET/1900 GMT) The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to report that consumer credit declined to $17.0 billion in March from $17.05 billion the month before.
Key Events Ahead
- (0845 ET/1245 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta chief executive Dennis Lockhart speaks at the 2016 Realtors Conference and Expo in Orlando.
- (0900 ET/1300 GMT) Federal Reserve Board Governor Lael Brainard speaks before the 19th Annual International Banking Conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- (1300 ET/1700 GMT) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan speaks at an Association of Banks of Mexico forum.
- (1530/ ET1930 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will deliver a lecture followed by a discussion on "Disruption and Opportunity: Shaping Policy in a Digital World".
- (1600 ET/2000 GMT) Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer speaks on "Policy Changes After the Great Recession" before panel at the 17th Jaques Polack Annual Research Conference hosted by the International Monetary Fund.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar index steadied as investors awaited the release of the U.S. nonfarm payroll data for further insights on the strength of the economy. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded 0.05 percent up at 97.35, having touched a peak of 97.52 on Tuesday, its highest since Mar. 8. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 64.71 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro surged after data showed German industrial output rose by 0.7 percent in February as mild weather helped a surge in construction activity. The European currency traded 0.1 percent up at 1.1231, having touched a low of 1.1183 on Tuesday, its lowest since Mar. 7. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at 112.09 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.1285 (Mar. 28 High), a break above targets 1.1331 (Mar. 25 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.1176 (Mar. 7 Low)., a break below could drag it till 1.1155.
USD/JPY: The dollar advanced to a 3-week peak, as investor risk sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump stated that a deal with China could be announced within four weeks. The major was trading 0.1 percent up at 111.73, having hit a high of 111.80, its highest since Mar. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at -104.67 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. Investors’ will continue to track the broad-based market sentiment, ahead of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, and consumer credit change. Immediate resistance is located at 111.92 (Mar. 6 High), a break above targets 112.13 (Mar. 5 High). On the downside, support is seen at 111.06 (Mar. 13 Low), a break below could take it lower at 110.74 (Mar. 8 Low).
GBP/USD: Sterling steadied as Prime Minister Theresa May asked the European Union to delay Brexit until late June. However, disagreement between British lawmakers to agree on a withdrawal deal continued to dent the British pounds bid tone. The major traded 0.05 percent up at 1.3071, having hit a high of 1.3196 on Wednesday; it’s highest since Mar. 28. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at -34.54 (Neutral) 1000 GMT. Immediate resistance is located at 1.3149 (Apr. 1 High), a break above could take it near 1.3227 (Mar. 21 High). On the downside, support is seen at 1.3034 (Mar. 28 Low), a break below targets 1.3003 (Mar. 21 Low). Against the euro, the pound was trading 0.2 percent down at 85.93 pence, having hit a high of 85.02 on Wednesday, it’s highest since Mar. 27.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc plunged to a 2-week low, as the greenback surged amid signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute. The major trades 0.05 percent up at 1.0004, having touched a high of 1.0005 earlier; it’s highest since Mar. 20. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at -6.50 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, near-term resistance is around 1.0024 (Feb. 22 High) and any break above will take the pair to next level till 1.0052 (Mar. 15 High). The near-term support is around 0.9937 (Mar. 28 Low), and any close below that level will drag it till 0.9895 (Jan.17 Low).
Equities Recap
European shares consolidated as investors waited for concrete progress in trade talks between the United States and China ahead of highly influential U.S. nonfarm payroll report.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index surged 0.05 percent at 387.98 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index rallied 0.05 percent to 1,524.81 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.2 percent up at 7,416.11 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 0.1 to 19,517.63 points.
Germany's DAX declined 0.1 percent at 11,979.80 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.2 percent higher at 5,475.09 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices declined, weighed down by supply concerns and worries about progress in U.S.-China trade talks. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.1 percent down at $69.18 per barrel by 1024 GMT, having hit a high of $70.00 on Thursday, its highest since Nov. 12. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was trading 0.2 percent down at $62.05 a barrel, after rising as high as $62.96 on Wednesday, its highest since the Nov. 7.
Gold prices slipped but were consolidating above the 10-week low touched in the previous session, as dollar rallied against the yen on signs of progress in the U.S.-China trade dispute and upbeat U.S. economic data. Spot gold declined 0.2 percent to $1,290.04 per ounce by 1032 GMT, having touched a low of $1,280.80 on Thursday, its lowest since March 7 and was down about 0.2 percent for the week. U.S. gold futures were steady at $1,294.20 an ounce.
Treasuries Recap
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were up about 2.5 basis points, hitting a two-week high of 2.538 percent, and were set for its biggest weekly rise this year.
The government bond yields in Europe rose, with the German 10-year Bund yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, rising into positive territory and was up 2 bps at 0.018 percent.
The Japanese government bond prices dipped slightly, with the benchmark 10-year JGB yield rising one basis point to minus 0.035 percent. The 20-year yield gained 1.0 basis point, to 0.370 percent, while the 30-year yield advanced half a basis point to 0.535 percent. Ten-year JGB futures dipped 0.10 point to 152.73.
