Market Roundup
•EU CPI, n.s.a 124.40, 124.37 forecast ,123.60 previous
•Spanish Jan Trade Balance -3.40B previous
•EU Feb CPI (MoM) 0.6%,0.6% forecast ,-0.4% previous
•EU Jan Trade Balance 11.4B,16.8B previous
•EU Feb CPI (YoY) 2.6% ,2.6% forecast ,2.8% previous
•EU Feb HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 3.3%,3.3% forecast ,3.6% previous
•EU Feb Core CPI (YoY) 3.1%,3.1% forecast ,3.3% previous
•EU Feb Core CPI (MoM) 0.7%,0.7% forecast ,-0.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Feb IPPI (YoY) -2.9% previous
•12:30 Canada Feb RMPI (MoM) 0.8% forecast ,1.2% previous
•12:30 Canada Feb RMPI (YoY)-6.4% previous
•12:30 Canada Feb IPPI (MoM) 0.0% forecast ,-0.1% previous
•14:00 US Mar NAHB Housing Market Index 48 forecast ,48 previous
•14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.450% previous
•14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.813% previous
•14:00 French French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.747% previous
•15:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.250% previous
•15:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.100% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Monday after data showed Eurozone inflation eased in February. Final data from Eurostat, revealed on Monday, confirmed that Eurozone inflation softened in February as expected, softening was primarily reflected to decrease in energy prices. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) recorded an annual increase of 2.6 percent, following a rise of 2.8 percent in January. This rate corresponds with the flash estimate published on March 1. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, decelerated to 3.1 percent, consistent with estimates, down from 3.3 percent the previous month. In February, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased by 0.6 percent on a monthly basis, aligning with the initial estimate. The euro was up 0.2% to $1.0899. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0947 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0995(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0871 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0803(50%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling little changed against the dollar Monday as investors waited for the Bank of England decision later in the week. The Bank of England will almost certainly hold rates at 5.25% on Thursday as officials wait for more data, particularly on wages and services, on how durable the recent fall in inflation might be.Price growth in Britain has slowed from 11.1% in October 2022 to 4% in January. February's consumer price index inflation figures are due on Wednesday and are expected to show a further fall to 3.6%. Sterling was broadly unchanged from Friday at $1.2379. It fell 1.2% last week as U.S. inflation data beat expectations, boosting bets that the Fed will hold rates higher for longer and causing the dollar to rally. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2828(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2857(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2715(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2623(50%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied against the Swiss franc on Monday as investors anticipated that Swiss National Bank could cut interest rates on Thursday, with inflation having long been within its 0-2% target range. Reuters reported that there is a 29% likelihood of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) reducing its policy rate of 1.75% at the upcoming meeting. Should such a rate cut occur, it is anticipated that the Swiss Franc would depreciate. This depreciation would likely stem from the decreased attractiveness of lower interest rates, resulting in reduced inflows of foreign capital. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8849 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8870(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8800(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8766(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Monday as investors are focused on the Bank of Japan's decision on Tuesday, which could see the central bank end eight years of negative interest rates. The yen has had a whirlwind few weeks, weakening to 150.88 to the dollar last month. It then rebounded to a one-month high of 146.48 at the start of March, on the back of stronger than expected economic data and rising bets that the BOJ is preparing to end eight years of negative interest rates.Bigger-than-expected pay hikes by major Japanese firms cemented expectations that the central bank will exit ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially as soon as at its meeting on Tuesday. The dollar was little changed against the Japanese yen at 149.07 yen per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 149.23 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 150.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.51 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 146.82 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares edged higher on Monday, supported by strength in commodity-linked stocks, although investor caution ahead of euro zone inflation data curbed gains.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.23 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.29 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.16 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell to a more than a one-week low on Monday, as investors positioned ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision and a series of other central bank meetings this week.
Spot gold was unchanged at $2,155.78 per ounce, as of 1011 GMT after hitting its lowest level since March 7 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,159.50.
Oil benchmark Brent hovered just under the $86 a barrel mark on Monday, extending last week's gains, as Ukraine increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Brent crude oil futures for May delivery were up 62 cents, or 0.7%, at $85.96 a barrel by 1019 GMT.
