Market Roundup
•US producer price index due at 1230 GMT
•Swiss Feb PPI (YoY) -2.0%,-2.3% previous
•Swiss Feb PPI (MoM) 0.1%,0.2% forecast,-0.5% previous
•EU Feb Core CPI (YoY) 3.5%,3.6% previous
•Spanish Feb HICP (MoM) 0.4% ,0.4% forecast, -0.2% previous
•Spanish Feb CPI (YoY) 2.8%,2.8% forecast,3.4% previous
•Spanish Feb Spanish HICP (YoY) 2.9%,2.9% forecast,3.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 212.25K previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,900K forecast, 1,906K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims 218K forecast, 217K previous
•12:30 US Feb Retail Sales (MoM) 0.8% forecast,-0.8% previous
•12:30 Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 0.3% forecast,-0.7% previous
•12:30 US Feb Retail Sales (YoY) 0.65% previous
•12:30 US Feb PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.6% previous
•12:30 US Feb PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.6% previous
•12:30 US PPI (YoY) 1.1% forecast,0.9% previous
•12:30 US Feb PPI (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
•12:30 US Feb Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.5% forecast,-0.6% previous
•12:30 US Feb Retail Control (MoM) -0.4% previous
•12:30 US Feb Core PPI (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•14:00 US Jan Business Inventories (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•14:00 US Jan Retail Inventories Ex Auto 0.3% forecast,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant Events
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro eased against dollar on Thursday investors remained cautious ahead of key economic data from the United States for fresh clues on the global interest rate cut trajectory. Investors keenly await a slew of U.S. economic data, including producer prices inflation and retail sales, ahead of next week's U.S. policy decision. Market participants will seek clues on when interest rate cuts might commence this year, with bets standing firm for a reduction in June. The dollar index , which gauges the currency against six major peers, rose 0.1% to 102.83.The euro was slightly lower at $1.0942 on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0965 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0972(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0919 (March 13th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0883(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose slightly on Thursday as investors waited for U.S. economic data later in the day and looked ahead to the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week. Expectations for higher rates tend to boost a country's bond yields relative to other markets, making the securities look more attractive and supporting the domestic currency. Britain’s housing market picked up in February, according to data on Thursday, with a gauge of new buyer inquiries notching the joint-strongest reading since February 2022.GDP figures on Wednesday showed that Britain's economy grew 0.2% in January from a month earlier, after the United Kingdom slipped into a recession in late 2023.Investors will watch closely at 1230 GMT when data on U.S. producer inflation, retail sales and weekly jobless claims is due out. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2823(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2857(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2788(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2767(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday as investors waited for U.S. economic data. investors awaited U.S. February producer prices and retail sales numbers that could gauge the economic health of the world's largest economy and steer hopes for a mid-year rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its policy meeting next week, but the focus will be on the "dot plot" projections. The U.S. central bank in its December meeting pencilled three-quarter-point rate cuts for 2024. Traders continue to bet on interest rate cuts in June, pricing in about 66% chance compared to 72% before the CPI data, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8811(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8853(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8762 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8744(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Thursday as investors positioned for the Bank of Japan to potentially raise interest rates out of negative territory at its meeting next week. The Bank of Japan will set interest rates on Tuesday next week, followed by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and the Bank of England on Thursday. Sources told Reuters that Japan's central bank will debate ending negative rates if big firms' wage talks yield strong results.Preliminary results of the spring wage negotiations are due on Friday, with several of the country's biggest companies having already agreed to meet union demands for pay increases. Investor focus is on the U.S. producer price index, retail sales and weekly jobless claims data, which are due at 1230 GMT. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.28 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.78(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 147.51 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 146.82 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares fell 1% on Monday as hopes of a vaccine-led global economic recovery fuelled a rally in commodities and raised concerns over the risk of higher inflation.
At (GMT 12:20),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.16 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.77 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Thursday as the dollar and Treasury yields held firm ahead of a slew of U.S. economic data due later in the day, which could offer more clarity on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut this year.
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,166.80 per ounce as of 1147 GMT. Bullion had hit a record peak of $2,194.99 on March 8. U.S. gold futures also dipped 0.4% to $2,172.30.
Oil prices extended gains on Thursday, as investors digested the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest oil market report, in which it made an upward revision to demand growth forecasts and cut its projection for non-OPEC supply in 2024.
Brent crude futures for May rose 72 cents, or 0.86%, to $84.75 a barrel by 1021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for April was up 83 cents, or 1.04%, at $80.55.
