Market Roundup
- EUR/USD -0.2%, USD/JPY -0.1%, GBP/USD +0.2%, DXY +0.1%
- DAX +0.1%, CAC, -0.2%, FTSE -0.1%, Brent +0.8%, Gold -0.3%, Copper +0.3%
- GBP/USD 4 wk 1.2528 high. EUR/GBP to 3 wk 0.8605 low
- UK Feb Retail sales +1.4% m/m, +3.7% y/y vs previous -0.5%/+1.0%. +0.4%/+2.6% forecast
- BOE Broadbent: quite possible interest rates could go up in UK
- Broadbent: UK exporters in "sweet spot" before Brexit, may not last
- ECB says survey data point to robust Q1 eurozone growth
- ECB raises emergency funding cap for Greek banks to 46.6 bln euros
- Germany Apr GfK Consumer sentiment 9.8 vs previous 10.0. 10.0 forecast
- France Mar Business climate 104 vs previous 107. 107 forecast
- SNB spent CHF 67.1bln in 2016 FX interventions. Down from 86.1bln in 2015
- Aussie sinks on China worries, iron ore price fall
- Oil up from 4-month lows, inventories curb recovery
Economic Data Ahead
- (0830 ET/1230 GMT) The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits is likely to have decreased by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000 for the week ended Mar. 11.
- (1000 ET/1400 GMT) The U.S. new home sales are expected to have increased 0.7 percent to a 565,000 units pace in February from 555,000 unit rate in January.
- (1030 ET/1430 GMT) The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports its Natural Gas Storage for the week ending March 17.
- (1100 ET/1500 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City issues manufacturing activity index for the month of March.
- (1100 ET/1500 GMT) The European Commission releases Eurozone's Consumer Confidence reading for the month of March. The index posted a final reading of -6.0 in the prior month.
- (1745 ET/2145 GMT) The Statistics New Zealand releases its trade balance data for the month of March. The economy posted an annual trade deficit of $285. billion in February.
Key Events Ahead
- (0845 ET/1245 GMT) Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gives opening remarks before the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference, "Strong Foundations: the Economic Futures of Kids and Communities".
- (1145 ET/1545 GMT) FedTrade 30-year Ginnie Mae (max $825 mn)
- (1230 ET/1630 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari speaks on "U.S. education outcomes and achievement gaps".
- (1900 ET/2300 GMT) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan participates in a moderated Q/A session at the Global Economy Series event hosted by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
- N/A Mexico's Central Bank Governor Agustin Carstens and Finance Minister Jose Antonio Meade will speak along with banking executives at the 80th annual banking convention.
FX Beat
DXY: The dollar retreated from multi-week lows touched versus its major peers, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech due later in the day. The greenback against a basket of currencies traded flat at 99.70, having hit a low of 99.55 on Wednesday, its lowest since Feb. 2. FxWirePro's Hourly Dollar Strength Index stood at 33.36 (Neutral) by 1000 GMT.
EUR/USD: The euro eased from a 7-week high as the greenback recovered ahead of a vote on American Health Care Act, where Republicans appear to struggle to pass the bill. The European currency traded 0.2 percent lower at 1.0778, having touched a high of 1.0824 on Wednesday, its highest since Feb. 2. FxWirePro's Hourly Euro Strength Index stood at -80.68 (Slightly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, near term support is around 1.07500 and any break below will drag the pair till 1.07200 (23.6% retracement of 1.08245 and 1.05250)/1.07060. The major resistance is around 1.0830 and any break above targets 1.08735 level.
USD/JPY: The dollar declined, extending losses for the eight consecutive sessions, as traders eyed Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's speech later in the day for fresh clues on the monetary policy outlook. The major rose to an intra-day high of 111.57 earlier in the day on the back of slight risk-on sentiment, however, it turned lower as investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. Healthcare vote. The pair traded 0.2 percent down at 110.95, having hit a low of 110.72 on Wednesday, its lowest since Nov. 22. FxWirePro's Hourly Yen Strength Index stood at 127.17 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. On the higher side, any break above 112 (support turned into resistance) will take the pair till 113.47 (21- day EMA)/114.30. The near term support is around 111 and any break below will drag it till 110/108.65.
GBP/USD: Sterling rallied to a fresh 1-month high above the 1.2500 handle after data released earlier showed Britain's retail sales rose much higher than expected, easing worries about weakening consumer sentiment. The economy's sales volumes rose by 1.4 percent in February, beating estimates of 0.4 percent increase and previous reading of-0.5 percent. Sterling trades 0.2 percent higher at 1.2502, having hit a high of 1.2527 earlier, its highest since Feb. 24. FxWirePro's Hourly Sterling Strength Index stood at 109.27 (Highly Bullish) by 1000 GMT. The pair is facing strong resistance around 1.2580 and any break above will take the pair till 1.2706. On the lower side, near term support is around 1.2480 and any break below targets 1.2420/1.24099 (23.6% retracement of 1.2109 and 1.25059)/1.2380/1.2320 level. Against the euro, the pound traded 0.3 percent up at 86.22 pence, having hit a high of 86.04 earlier, its highest since Mar 3.
USD/CHF: The Swiss franc eased after rising to a 7-week high in the previous session, as the greenback rebounded from recent lows following a minor recovery in the U.S. Treasury yields. The major traded 0.1 percent higher at 0.9922, hovering away from a low of 0.9881 touched on Wednesday, its weakest since Feb. 2. FxWirePro's Hourly Swiss Franc Strength Index stood at 72.91 (Bullish) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, major support is around 0.9860 and any close below will drag the pair till 0.97850 (61.8% retracement of 0.95370 and 1.01700). The near term resistance is around 0.9960 (support turned into resistance) and any break above will take it till 1.000/1.0040 (10- day MA)/1.0060.
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar tumbled to a fresh 1-week low as investors turned cautious ahead of tonight’s vote on the American Health Care Act, triggering a bout of risk-aversion. The Aussie trades 0.5 percent down at 0.7637, having hit a low of 0.7624 earlier in the session, it’s lowest since Mar. 15. FxWirePro's Hourly Aussie Strength Index stood at -161.66 (Highly Bearish) by 1000 GMT. On the lower side, the next immediate support stands at 0.7590 (55- day EMA) and any break below will drag the pair down till 0.7558 (100- day EMA)/0.7540 (200- day MA). The major resistance is around 0.7750 (Feb 23 high) and a break above will take it till 0.7800.
Equities Recap
European shares gained as crude oil prices rebounded from recent lows, while the dollar steadied ahead of U.S. Healthcare vote and Fed Yellen's speech.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.2 percent to 374.68 points, while the FTSEurofirst 300 index rallied 0.15 percent to 1,477.72 points.
Britain's FTSE 100 trades 0.2 percent down at 7,309.01 points, while mid-cap FTSE 250 added 0.07 percent to 18,847.00 points.
Germany's DAX edged up 0.19 percent at 11,926.46 points; France's CAC 40 trades 0.11 percent lower at 4,989.20 points.
Tokyo's Nikkei gained 0.23 percent to 19,085.31 points, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose 0.23 percent to 5,697.60 points and South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.2 percent to 2,172.72 points.
Shanghai composite index advanced 0.1 percent to 3,248.55 points, while CSI300 index jumped 0.3 percent to 3,461.98 points. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.3 percent to 24,327.70 points.
Commodities Recap
Crude oil prices rose, retreating from a near four-month low touched in the previous session, however, upside remains capped as OPEC-led supply cuts were not yet reducing record U.S. crude inventories. International benchmark Brent crude was trading 0.4 percent up at $50.89 per barrel by 0933 GMT, having hit a low of $49.75 on Wednesday, its lowest since Nov. 30. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3 percent to $48.30 a barrel, after falling as low as $47.08, its weakest since Nov. 30.
Gold prices edged down but stayed within the sight of a 3-week peak hit the session before, as the dollar recovered from seven-week lows. Spot gold fell 0.2 percent to $1,246.06 per ounce at 0939 GMT, having hit a high of $1,251.15 on Wednesday, its strongest since Feb. 28. U.S. gold futures were down 0.1 percent at $1,247.90.
Treasuries Recap
The U.S. Treasuries slipped ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s scheduled speech later in the day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 2.40 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yield also climbed nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 3.02 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year note traded 1/2 basis points up at 1.25 percent.
The UK gilts plunged, after reading higher-than-expected rebound in the country’s retail sales during the month of February. The yield on the benchmark 10-year gilts, jumped 1-1/2 basis points to 1.19 percent, the super-long 30-year bond yields also climbed nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 1.76 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year traded 3-1/2 basis points lower at 0.14 percent.
The German bunds trade higher as investors wait to watch the European Central Bank member Lautenschlaeger’s speech, scheduled for later in the day. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, slumped 1-1/2 basis points to 0.39 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yields also plunged 1-1/2 basis points to 1.12 percent and the yield on short-term 1-year bond also traded 3-1/2 basis points lower at -0.80 percent.
The New Zealand bonds closed modestly higher after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained a neutral policy stance at its monetary policy decision, held earlier today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, closed 1 basis point lower at 3.23 percent, the yield on 7-year note also slipped nearly 1 basis point to 2.82 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note traded 3-1/2 basis points higher at 2.15 percent.
The Australian bonds rallied as investors poured into safe-haven assets, following uncertainties over the United States President Donald Trump’s administration. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, slumped 2-1/2 basis points to 2.75 percent, the yield on 15-year note nose-dived nearly 2 basis points to 3.14 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1-1/2 basis points lower at 1.77 percent.
