Market Roundup
•US Nov Core Retail Sales (YoY) 5.6%,4.1% forecast, 7.8% previous
•US Nov Retail Sales (MoM )-3.8%,-4.2% forecast, 1.2% previous
•US Nov Core Retail Sales (MoM) -2.6%,-3.3% forecast, 1.3% previous
•US Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 2.4%,2.8% forecast, 5.8% previous
•German Nov PPI (YoY) -0.5%, -0.6% forecast, -0.7% previous
• German Nov PPI (MoM) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• German Dec Current Assessment 91.3, 89.0 forecast, 90.0 previous
• German Dec Ifo Business Climate Index 92.1, 90.0 forecast, 90.7 previous
• German Dec Business Expectations 92.8, 92.5 forecast, 91.5 previous
• EU Oct Current Account n.s.a. 34.1B, 33.5B previous
• EU Oct Current Account 26.6B, 25.2B previous
•Italian Nov PPI (MoM) -0.2%, 0.6% previous
•Russia Dec Interest Rate Decision 4.25%,4.25% forecast, 4.25% previous
•UK Dec CBI Industrial Trends Orders -25, -34 forecast, -40 previous
• US Current Account (Q3) -178.5B, -189.0B forecast, -170.5B previous
• Canada Oct Retail Sales (MoM ) 0.4%,0.2% forecast, 1.1% previous
•Canada Oct Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.0%, 0.2% forecast, 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•14:00 Belgium Dec NBB Business Climate -13.4 forecast, -12.1 previous
•15:00 US Nov Leading Index (MoM) 0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous
•16:00 Russian Real Wage Growth (YoY) 1.0% forecast, 2.2% previous
•Canada Oct Budget Balance (YoY) -198.11B previous
•Canada Oct Budget Balance -27.59B previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 258 previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 338 previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
•14:00 ECB's Enria Speaks
•16:00 US Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
•16:10 US FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against dollar on Friday after survey showed German business morale rose unexpectedly in December. High demand for industrial goods, brighter export expectations and government support for companies hit by lockdowns to slow the spread of the coronavirus contributed to an unexpected rise in German business morale in December. The Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 92.1 from an upwardly revised reading of 90.9 in November. The euro traded at $1.2260, having hit a two-and-a-half-year high of $1.2273 on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2272(23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2300 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2239 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2200 (5DMA).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell on Friday, reversing some of its recent gains, as EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier warned that there were just hours left to reach a Brexit trade deal with London. Market confidence has risen sharply this week that the two sides will clinch a deal, which would ensure that the goods trade which makes up half of annual EU-UK trade would remain free of tariffs and quotas beyond Dec. 31.The pound hit 2-1/2 yeah highs above $1.36 on Thursday, but Friday’s trading session served as a reminder that a deal is far from guaranteed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3549 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3604 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3495 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3446 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Friday as escalating tensions between the United States and China increased demand for greenback. The U.S. is expected to add around 80 additional companies and affiliates, mostly Chinese, including chipmaker SMIC , to a trade blacklist on Friday. Tensions between two of the world’s biggest economies have roiled markets for more than a year, which along with the COVID-19 pandemic, led to a slowdown in global economic growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8856 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8876 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0. 8825(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8800 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday after Bank of Japan extended its aid scheme for corporate lending and kept other policy settings steady, as expected. The Bank of Japan on Friday unveiled a plan to examine more effective ways to achieve its 2% inflation target, following in the foot steps of its U.S. and European peers as a renewed spike in infections threatened to derail a fragile recovery. In a surprise move, the BOJ said it will look at ways to make its policy “more effective and sustainable,” as the blow to growth from the pandemic pushes inflation further away from its target and forces it to maintain its massive stimulus longer.Strong resistance can be seen at 103.16 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 103.29 (61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 103.05 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 102.91 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares reversed early losses to trade higher on Friday following a surprise rise in German business morale as the region gets ready for the mass rollout of COVID-19 vaccines.
At (GMT 13:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.31 percent, France’s CAC finished was down by 0.24 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil dipped towards $51 a barrel on Friday though still headed for a seventh weekly gain in a row as investors focused on the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines and looked past rising case numbers and tighter lockdowns in Europe.
Brent crude was down 22 cents, or 0.4%, at $51.28 at 1118 GMT, near the nine-month high of $51.90 hit on Thursday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which also reached its highest since March on Thursday, fell 12 cents or 0.3%, to reach $48.24.
Gold prices retreated on Friday from a one-month peak scaled in the previous session, as the dollar bounced back from lows, while investors pinned hopes on a U.S. fiscal stimulus deal.
Spot gold edged lower by 0.1% to $1,884.71 per ounce by 1202 GMT. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,887.70 per ounce.
